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MLS Power Ranking Averages - Wk 16

Philadelphia and Cincinnati are unanimous picks for first and last places.

9 of 12 sites published this week, Soccer America appears to have ceased their rankings for the year with no rankings in the last 4 weeks, but I won’t remove them from the list yet since there’s only one week left to run.

Rankings DO NOT include the midweek games, only those from last week are considered.

As always, if you know of a site I have not used please let me know in the comments and I’ll look into adding it for next season!

Sites Used

You may notice the list includes several ‘analytic’ sites; they serve to function as a stable counterbalance or ‘control group’ to the rest which are based more on personal opinions, and those done by ‘group rankers’. There are also sites included that some will argue are ‘prediction rankings’ - but that also is a form of Power Ranking is (see the quote at the top) since it uses algorithms to calculate a team’s likely final position.

All the averages use the Olympic method (I.E. Truncated Mean value) of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and then averaging the rest to reduce bias.

2021 MLS Power Ranking Averages

Avg 23 Avg 24 Avg 25&26 Team Best Worst St. Dev 2021 Avg S/High S/Low
Avg 23 Avg 24 Avg 25&26 Team Best Worst St. Dev 2021 Avg S/High S/Low
15.11 11.8 9.91 Atlanta United 5 14 3.08 13.9 8.5 21.58
23.89 25.3 25.91 Austin FC 20 27 1.9 19.1 10.25 25.91
21.67 22.5 23.36 Chicago Fire 13 26 3.44 23.6 17.29 26.33
3.33 4.2 4.82 Colorado Rapids 3 9 1.87 8.2 3.33 18
19.89 20.8 19.27 Columbus Crew 10 22 3.32 12.2 4.13 20.8
12.44 12.8 13.18 D.C. United 3 18 3.94 16.9 9.55 25.57
25 24.3 25.18 FC Cincinnati 24 26 0.69 24.6 20.43 26.9
18.67 19.3 20.45 FC Dallas 16 23 2.56 19.2 13.38 23
25.22 24.2 22.82 Houston Dynamo 21 25 0.99 19.8 14.29 25.22
19.44 17.6 19.55 Inter Miami 13 26 3.55 22.4 17.25 26.82
13.56 12.3 14 Los Angeles FC 2 19 4.7 10.7 2.71 17.09
10 9 12.36 Los Angeles Galaxy 6 20 4.45 9.3 4.7 14.29
8.67 10.1 11.09 Minnesota United 5 15 2.84 14.9 8.64 23.7
13.89 14.8 10.73 Montreal (C.F.) 8 15 2.34 15.5 10.73 20
4.22 4.4 5.09 Nashville SC 3 7 1.12 9.7 4.22 18
1.22 1.2 1.18 NE. Revolution 1 4 0.87 3.7 1.18 9.14
4.67 5.8 5.82 New York City FC 1 9 2.32 5.3 2.58 11.86
19.22 19.6 18.18 New York RB 10 22 3.76 15.6 9.58 21.5
8.67 9.7 15.18 Orlando City 9 20 3.33 7.8 3.17 15.18
10.78 10.2 9.45 Philadelphia Union 5 13 2.84 8.1 3.14 12.75
15.89 12.6 10.91 Portland Timbers 6 23 4.94 14.5 8.93 19.36
14 15.3 12.27 Real Salt Lake 5 18 3.91 14.4 10.38 23.71
17.67 18.4 19.18 San Jose Earthquakes 14 26 3.2 18.3 7.1 23.42
3.67 2.6 3.18 Seattle Sounders 2 8 1.85 2 1 4
4.67 4.2 2.45 Sporting Kansas City 1 6 1.33 4.4 1.82 11.75
26.89 27 26.55 Toronto FC 24 27 0.96 22.4 13.43 27
15.44 18.2 18.09 Vancouver Whitecaps 10 21 3.04 21.1 15.44 25.73

Site Bias

All sites are going to have bias, whether conscious (blogs) or due to analytic calculation (based on past performance). This section lets you see the extent that sites are biased for/against teams. Negative totals (-) are bias FOR, positive numbers (+) are bias AGAINST.

2020 MLS Site Bias

Team / Site AVG Jeff Sagarin 538 Who Scored ESPN Massey Soc. Amer MLS Sonny Moore Freeborg MLS Multiplex 3rd deg. US Soc. Players AVG Team / Site
Team / Site AVG Jeff Sagarin 538 Who Scored ESPN Massey Soc. Amer MLS Sonny Moore Freeborg MLS Multiplex 3rd deg. US Soc. Players AVG Team / Site
Atlanta United FC 15.5 -0.5 -0.97 1.57 2.83 1.9 0.28 2.19 -1.87 5.67 1.81 5.64 1.1 15.5 ATL
Chicago Fire 18.66 -0.47 -0.59 -3.66 1.09 1.01 2.9 1.34 4.59 0.26 2.84 3.34 3.94 18.66 CHI
Colorado Rapids 14.04 -0.48 1.83 -5.51 1.04 -0.24 1.74 1.59 4.4 -2.87 3.65 2.25 3.96 14.04 COL
Columbus Crew SC 4.71 4.42 -0.98 0.89 -0.21 0.09 -2.04 -1.08 4.42 1.71 -1.27 1.86 0.29 4.71 CLB
D.C. United 20.48 0.58 3.59 -0.68 0.69 2.32 0.96 3.02 -0.98 2.52 0.21 4.38 1.32 20.48 DCU
FC Cincinnati 22.34 2.72 3.06 1.86 1.99 1.33 -1.45 0.97 1.79 0.41 0.72 -0.91 -0.14 22.34 CIN
FC Dallas 9.94 -1.25 -0.01 -2.94 2.39 0.13 0.62 1.75 -2.94 -0.27 4.44 2.77 5.06 9.94 FCD
Houston Dynamo 17.46 0.79 2.67 0.47 0.29 -2.26 2.21 2.29 -1.77 -0.79 1.79 2.25 -0.06 17.46 HOU
Inter Miami CF 6.51 4.86 -0.02 -0.42 2.36 -0.22 2.55 1.74 -6.89 -2.72 4.24 2.68 2.11 6.51 MIA
Los Angeles FC 15.67 -1.88 -1.98 1.96 2.99 0.89 -0.4 1.24 -2.95 9.07 1.68 1.35 -1.11 15.67 LAFC
L.A. Galaxy 6.86 1.77 -1.67 -4.4 0.83 2.13 -2.34 2.21 0.46 4.33 1.08 -3.38 0.93 6.86 LAG
Minnesota United FC 15.85 -1.11 2.87 -4.13 3.64 -1.53 0.25 2.58 -0.23 2.06 1.08 0.71 1.14 15.85 MUFC
Montreal Impact 12.24 2.65 2.55 -1.25 -0.85 2.82 0.59 1.28 5.09 -1.02 -0.22 -0.56 -0.65 12.24 MTL
Nashville SC 9.15 1.56 1.85 2.18 -0.82 -2.95 3.18 -0.38 0.06 0.43 1.99 2.89 1.38 9.15 NASH
N.E. Revolution 13.88 4.45 1.43 0.36 -2.41 1.76 -0.24 -0.11 3.32 -1.41 -0.8 1.76 -1.84 13.88 NER
New York City FC 7.92 -0.65 0.78 3.52 0.68 -0.68 4.96 -0.15 -1.15 -2.48 1.66 -1.86 -0.95 7.92 NYFC
New York RB 13.88 1.12 0.59 -1.28 -0.46 2.52 1.34 1.18 1.81 1.95 -0.82 6.12 5.32 13.88 NYRB
Orlando City SC 7.92 -0.29 2.35 5.21 -0.92 -2.85 1.64 0.14 1.64 -2.75 -0.11 0.37 1.08 7.92 ORL
Philadelphia Union 3.86 -0.61 -0.86 3.94 0.22 -0.73 0.92 -0.3 -0.8 -1.94 0.77 1.85 1.74 3.86 PHI
Portland Timbers 7.53 -0.97 2.2 8.8 0.64 -3.53 1.03 -1.28 1.72 4.72 -0.9 -4.39 -1.13 7.53 POR
Real Salt Lake 15.16 -1.41 1.04 1.64 3.34 2.91 0.62 0.65 -1.1 1.17 1.47 0.41 1.04 15.16 RSL
San Jose Earthquakes 17.05 0.01 0.28 8.08 0.62 2.82 -0.27 1.08 2.95 2.78 0.2 -1.62 -4.25 17.05 SJE
Seattle Sounders FC 4.1 -0.79 0.9 -0.17 0.23 3.57 0.23 -0.6 -0.97 1.98 0.34 -1.24 -0.1 4.1 SEA
Sporting Kansas City 7.64 3.74 -0.51 -0.17 1.86 1.83 1.25 0.17 4.74 -0.22 -1.51 -0.21 -0.64 7.64 SKC
Toronto FC 4.42 1.46 -1.55 3.05 -0.75 4.45 -0.75 -1.48 2.58 -0.17 -1.79 -2.42 4.18 4.42 TFC
Vancouver Whitecaps FC 21.04 1.59 2.43 2.36 0.04 3.89 1.4 1.27 3.4 -1.12 -1.23 -2.75 -2.64 21.04 VAN
X Team / Site AVG Sagarin 538 Who Scored ESPN Massey Soc. Amer MLS Sonny Moore Freeborg MLS Multiplex 3rd deg. US Soc. Players AVG Team / Site