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MLS Power Ranking Averages - Week 1

First and Last unchanged from last year’s final rankings.

13 sites published rankings to start the 2020 season, more may join in the coming weeks as some rankers need a few weeks worth of data for their calculations. The pre-season totals and order has changed slightly as a few more sites were added. Los Angeles FC remains on top, which is where they were in the preseason ranks, as well as last year’s ending ranking.

As always, if you know of a site I have not used please let me know in the comments and I’ll look into adding it for next season!

Sites Used

You may notice the list includes several ‘analytic’ sites; they serve to function as a stable counterbalance or ‘control group’ to the rest which are based more on personal opinions, and those done by ‘team’ rankers. There are also sites included that some will argue are ‘prediction rankings’ - but that also is a form of Power Ranking is (see the quote at the top).

All the averages use the Olympic method (I.E. Truncated Mean value) of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and then averaging the rest to reduce bias.

2021 MLS Power Ranking Averages

Avg 20/21 Avg 22 Avg 23 Team Best Worst St. Dev 2021 Avg S/High S/Low
Avg 20/21 Avg 22 Avg 23 Team Best Worst St. Dev 2021 Avg S/High S/Low
12.45 14.73 14.63 Atlanta United 6 21 4.5 14.1 8.5 21.58
22.18 23.64 23.88 Austin FC 19 26 1.96 18.5 10.25 23.88
23.18 21.36 21.63 Chicago Fire 14 25 3.71 23.6 17.29 26.33
4.55 4.55 3.13 Colorado Rapids 1 9 2.46 8.6 3.13 18
20 18.55 20.75 Columbus Crew 13 22 2.6 11.5 4.13 20.75
13.45 11.73 12.38 D.C. United 3 18 4.62 17.3 9.55 25.57
24.36 24.73 24.88 FC Cincinnati 22 26 1.49 24.5 20.43 26.9
18.82 17.36 18.75 FC Dallas 14 22 2.99 19.1 13.38 23
24.18 25.18 25 Houston Dynamo 23 27 1.05 19.4 14.29 25.18
20.73 21.45 19 Inter Miami 15 26 3.43 22.8 17.25 26.82
16.45 17.09 13.25 Los Angeles FC 2 20 6.03 10.4 2.71 17.09
10.09 9.82 10 Los Angeles Galaxy 7 16 2.75 9.2 4.7 14.29
9.82 8.91 8.75 Minnesota United 4 13 2.36 15.3 8.64 23.7
14.55 12.45 13.88 Montreal (C.F.) 9 19 3.21 15.8 11.9 20
7 5.64 4.5 Nashville SC 2 8 1.65 10.2 4.5 18
1.55 1.45 1.25 NE. Revolution 1 5 1.26 3.9 1.25 9.14
4.82 3.36 4.88 New York City FC 1 8 2.39 5.3 2.58 11.86
16.18 19.55 19 New York RB 12 23 4.35 15.2 9.58 21.5
7.55 8.64 8.63 Orlando City 6 13 2.35 7.3 3.17 11
7.82 9.18 11.25 Philadelphia Union 7 18 3.95 7.9 3.14 12.75
19.36 16.73 16.38 Portland Timbers 12 22 2.92 14.8 8.93 19.36
12.73 16.55 13.88 Real Salt Lake 10 25 4.35 14.5 10.38 23.71
15.27 15.36 17.38 San Jose Earthquakes 12 26 4.32 18.2 7.1 23.42
2.36 3.36 3.38 Seattle Sounders 2 7 1.65 1.9 1 4
2.64 3.45 4.75 Sporting Kansas City 2 6 1.17 4.5 1.82 11.75
26.73 27 27 Toronto FC 26 27 0.32 22 13.43 27
18.82 17.09 15.25 Vancouver Whitecaps 8 20 4.22 21.3 15.25 25.73
  • Highest Standard Deviation: Inter Miami CF at 6.41
  • Lowest Standard Deviation: Los Angeles FC 0.52
  • Biggest Rise: TBD Wk 2
  • Biggest Fall: TBD Wk 2

Site Bias

All sites are going to have bias, whether conscious (blogs) or due to analytic calculation (based on past performance). This section lets you see the extent that sites are biased for/against teams.

2020 MLS Site Bias

Team / Site AVG Jeff Sagarin 538 Who Scored ESPN Massey Soc. Amer MLS Sonny Moore Freeborg MLS Multiplex 3rd deg. US Soc. Players AVG Team / Site
Team / Site AVG Jeff Sagarin 538 Who Scored ESPN Massey Soc. Amer MLS Sonny Moore Freeborg MLS Multiplex 3rd deg. US Soc. Players AVG Team / Site
Atlanta United FC 15.5 -0.5 -0.97 1.57 2.83 1.9 0.28 2.19 -1.87 5.67 1.81 5.64 1.1 15.5 ATL
Chicago Fire 18.66 -0.47 -0.59 -3.66 1.09 1.01 2.9 1.34 4.59 0.26 2.84 3.34 3.94 18.66 CHI
Colorado Rapids 14.04 -0.48 1.83 -5.51 1.04 -0.24 1.74 1.59 4.4 -2.87 3.65 2.25 3.96 14.04 COL
Columbus Crew SC 4.71 4.42 -0.98 0.89 -0.21 0.09 -2.04 -1.08 4.42 1.71 -1.27 1.86 0.29 4.71 CLB
D.C. United 20.48 0.58 3.59 -0.68 0.69 2.32 0.96 3.02 -0.98 2.52 0.21 4.38 1.32 20.48 DCU
FC Cincinnati 22.34 2.72 3.06 1.86 1.99 1.33 -1.45 0.97 1.79 0.41 0.72 -0.91 -0.14 22.34 CIN
FC Dallas 9.94 -1.25 -0.01 -2.94 2.39 0.13 0.62 1.75 -2.94 -0.27 4.44 2.77 5.06 9.94 FCD
Houston Dynamo 17.46 0.79 2.67 0.47 0.29 -2.26 2.21 2.29 -1.77 -0.79 1.79 2.25 -0.06 17.46 HOU
Inter Miami CF 6.51 4.86 -0.02 -0.42 2.36 -0.22 2.55 1.74 -6.89 -2.72 4.24 2.68 2.11 6.51 MIA
Los Angeles FC 15.67 -1.88 -1.98 1.96 2.99 0.89 -0.4 1.24 -2.95 9.07 1.68 1.35 -1.11 15.67 LAFC
L.A. Galaxy 6.86 1.77 -1.67 -4.4 0.83 2.13 -2.34 2.21 0.46 4.33 1.08 -3.38 0.93 6.86 LAG
Minnesota United FC 15.85 -1.11 2.87 -4.13 3.64 -1.53 0.25 2.58 -0.23 2.06 1.08 0.71 1.14 15.85 MUFC
Montreal Impact 12.24 2.65 2.55 -1.25 -0.85 2.82 0.59 1.28 5.09 -1.02 -0.22 -0.56 -0.65 12.24 MTL
Nashville SC 9.15 1.56 1.85 2.18 -0.82 -2.95 3.18 -0.38 0.06 0.43 1.99 2.89 1.38 9.15 NASH
N.E. Revolution 13.88 4.45 1.43 0.36 -2.41 1.76 -0.24 -0.11 3.32 -1.41 -0.8 1.76 -1.84 13.88 NER
New York City FC 7.92 -0.65 0.78 3.52 0.68 -0.68 4.96 -0.15 -1.15 -2.48 1.66 -1.86 -0.95 7.92 NYFC
New York RB 13.88 1.12 0.59 -1.28 -0.46 2.52 1.34 1.18 1.81 1.95 -0.82 6.12 5.32 13.88 NYRB
Orlando City SC 7.92 -0.29 2.35 5.21 -0.92 -2.85 1.64 0.14 1.64 -2.75 -0.11 0.37 1.08 7.92 ORL
Philadelphia Union 3.86 -0.61 -0.86 3.94 0.22 -0.73 0.92 -0.3 -0.8 -1.94 0.77 1.85 1.74 3.86 PHI
Portland Timbers 7.53 -0.97 2.2 8.8 0.64 -3.53 1.03 -1.28 1.72 4.72 -0.9 -4.39 -1.13 7.53 POR
Real Salt Lake 15.16 -1.41 1.04 1.64 3.34 2.91 0.62 0.65 -1.1 1.17 1.47 0.41 1.04 15.16 RSL
San Jose Earthquakes 17.05 0.01 0.28 8.08 0.62 2.82 -0.27 1.08 2.95 2.78 0.2 -1.62 -4.25 17.05 SJE
Seattle Sounders FC 4.1 -0.79 0.9 -0.17 0.23 3.57 0.23 -0.6 -0.97 1.98 0.34 -1.24 -0.1 4.1 SEA
Sporting Kansas City 7.64 3.74 -0.51 -0.17 1.86 1.83 1.25 0.17 4.74 -0.22 -1.51 -0.21 -0.64 7.64 SKC
Toronto FC 4.42 1.46 -1.55 3.05 -0.75 4.45 -0.75 -1.48 2.58 -0.17 -1.79 -2.42 4.18 4.42 TFC
Vancouver Whitecaps FC 21.04 1.59 2.43 2.36 0.04 3.89 1.4 1.27 3.4 -1.12 -1.23 -2.75 -2.64 21.04 VAN
X Team / Site AVG Sagarin 538 Who Scored ESPN Massey Soc. Amer MLS Sonny Moore Freeborg MLS Multiplex 3rd deg. US Soc. Players AVG Team / Site

Site Bias H/L

Site VS Team FOR Team
Site VS Team FOR Team
Jeff Sagarin 5.72 NER -6.97 RSL
FiveThirtyEight 4.52 DCU -8.42 MIA
Who Scored 11.86 PHI -8.52 CHI
ESPN 5.53 NYFC -6.58 COL
Massey 5.56 LAG -4.75 COL
Soccer America 5.53 NYFC -3.47 FCD
MLS Soccer 3.27 DCU -2.99 POR
MLS Fantasy Boss 7.67 ORL -7.75 MIA
Reddit /r/mls 6.34 PHI -6.44 LAG
Cincinnati Soccer Talk 10.34 PHI -8.31 MTL
US Soccer Players 8.34 PHI -9.53 NER
SBI 5.67 ORL -6.15 ATL
Sonny Moore 11.35 CLB -13.25 MIA
MLS Multiplex 5.86 FCD -3.44 LAG
Fansided MLS 5.26 POR -8.94 LAG