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RSL Playoff Watch after Wk 32

Fortunately, last weekend didn’t do too much damage.

MLS: Real Salt Lake at Chicago Fire Mike Dinovo-USA TODAY Sports

New England Revolution won the Supporter’s Shield, both Sporting Kansas City and Colorado Rapids claimed their playoff berths. No other teams have been eliminated.

Real Salt Lake may have lost vs the Chicago Fire, but other results from the teams ahead of us didn’t move them out of our range, so we still have a glimmer of hope.

RSL now has 4 games remaining with a game in hand over those above us. Our maximum point total remains at 54, and our projected points based on home & away PPG is 47. That is out of the playoffs in 8th by one point.

So let’s take a look at the games this weekend and see what would be the best results for RSL.

RSL plays on the road in Dallas, and while the Texas hex has been broken we still have struggled to get results on the road in that state. We really need a win at this point in the season, and we have beaten FC Dallas back in early September in Utah. A tie or loss won’t eliminate us yet, but in all likelihood it will mean the postseason is no longer an option.

Tuesday, Oct. 26th

  • Los Angeles FC vs Seattle Sounders - The Sounders winning would be our best option. Currently LAFC is only one point behind us, though we still have the game in hand. If we lose and they tie we would still hold the tiebreaker for 8th. If RSL ties or loses and LAFC wins we fall to 9th.

Wednesday, Oct. 27th

  • New England Revolution vs Colorado Rapids - This game will really have no affect on RSL’s standing. Colorado sits one point above our maximum possible. The only outcome with a Rapids loss would be the Revolution setting a new MLS points record. Actually, yes I’d like for that record being set against our rival.
  • Sporting Kansas City vs LA Galaxy - As much as it leaves a very bad taste in my mouth to even say it, we need KC to win. We can still equal the Galaxy with a win and a draw (with us still holding the goal differential tiebreaker). A tie would push them 5 points ahead. We can’t reach SKC, so holding LA is our best hope.
  • Portland Timbers vs San Jose Earthquakes - Portland is tied with LA for points, but holds the first tiebreaker. We need them to lose vs the Quakes to keep them in range since we play them early next month. If they lose this game and lose or tie this weekend, we could be ahead of them when we face off early next month.
  • Vancouver Whitecaps vs Minnesota United - A tie would be our best option here. The Whitecaps are 2 points ahead, if we won we would be equal on points but hold the first tiebreaker and move back into 7th. The Loons would be a mere one point ahead going into the weekend. If either side wins
  • Austin & Houston have midweek byes.

With a win in Dallas coupled with the best results, RSL could return to 7th place, the worst case scenario we would fall to 9th.

Standings and Games Remaining

  1. *SEA: 58 - Away vs LAFC, Home vs LAG, Away vs VAN
  2. *SKC: 55 - Home vs LAG, Away vs MIN, Away vs AUS, Home vs RSL
  3. *COL: 55 - Away vs NER, Away vs HOU, Home vs LAFC
  4. POR: 46 - Home vs SJE, Away vs RSL, Home vs AUS
  5. LAG: 46 - Away vs SKC, Away vs SEA, Home vs MIN
  6. MIN: 45 - Away vs VAN, Home vs SKC, Away vs LAG
  7. VAN: 44 - Home vs MIN, Away vs LAFC, Home vs SEA
  8. RSL: 42 - Away vs FCD, Home vs SJE, Home vs POR, Away vs SKC
  9. LAFC: 41 - Home vs SEA, Home vs VAN, Away vs COL
  10. SJE: 34 - Away vs POR, Away vs RSL, Home vs FCD
  11. HOU: 30 - Home vs COL, Away vs MTL
  12. FCD: 29 - Home vs RSL, Home vs AUS, Away vs SJE
  13. AUS: 28 - Away vs FCD, Home vs SKC, Away vs POR

Current projected Western Conference Final Points

  1. Seattle Sounders: 64 (top 4 guaranteed)
  2. Sporting Kansas City: 62 (In)
  3. Colorado Rapids: 60 (In)
  4. Portland Timbers: 51
  5. LA Galaxy: 50
  6. Minnesota United: 49
  7. Vancouver Whitecaps: 49
  8. Real Salt Lake: 47
  9. Los Angeles FC: 45
  10. San Jose Earthquakes: 38
  11. FC Dallas: 33 (Eliminated)
  12. Houston Dynamo: 32 (Eliminated)
  13. Austin FC: 31 (Eliminated)