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Power Ranking Averages - Wk 16

New England moves into first place!

Power Rankings

Who knows what week it is now? Last week apparently MLS put midweek games as Wk 14, and weekend as 15, so now we’re jumping to week 16!

14 sites published rankings for week 16. These rankings do not include midweek games. 1 site put on drop notice due to lack of posting.

As always, if you know of a site I have not used please let me know in the comments and I’ll look into adding it to the list!

Sites Used

You may notice the inclusion of ‘analytic’ sites; they serve to function as a ‘control group’ to the rest which are based on personal opinions. There are also sites included that some will argue are ‘prediction rankings’ - but that also is a form of Power Ranking is (see the quote at the top) since it uses algorithms to calculate a team’s likely final position.

Bias for or against certain teams are sometimes an unfortunate feature of power rankings. It can be based on their analytic formula, or the raters preference. In some cases the bias can become extreme - If you feel a site got the ratings wrong for your team I invite you to contact them regarding it.

I will typically only remove sites for two reasons.

  1. Duplicating / copying ratings from another source on the list.
  2. Failure to update for 6 consecutive weeks. Previous ratings will not be removed, but new ones may or may not be added. I will still periodically check them to see if they have resumed.

All the averages use the Olympic method (I.E. Truncated Mean value) of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and then averaging the rest to reduce bias.

The full spreadsheeet is here.

2021 MLS Power Ranking Averages

Avg 23 Avg 24 Avg 25&26 Team Best Worst St. Dev 2021 Avg S/High S/Low
Avg 23 Avg 24 Avg 25&26 Team Best Worst St. Dev 2021 Avg S/High S/Low
15.11 11.8 9.91 Atlanta United 5 14 3.08 13.9 8.5 21.58
23.89 25.3 25.91 Austin FC 20 27 1.9 19.1 10.25 25.91
21.67 22.5 23.36 Chicago Fire 13 26 3.44 23.6 17.29 26.33
3.33 4.2 4.82 Colorado Rapids 3 9 1.87 8.2 3.33 18
19.89 20.8 19.27 Columbus Crew 10 22 3.32 12.2 4.13 20.8
12.44 12.8 13.18 D.C. United 3 18 3.94 16.9 9.55 25.57
25 24.3 25.18 FC Cincinnati 24 26 0.69 24.6 20.43 26.9
18.67 19.3 20.45 FC Dallas 16 23 2.56 19.2 13.38 23
25.22 24.2 22.82 Houston Dynamo 21 25 0.99 19.8 14.29 25.22
19.44 17.6 19.55 Inter Miami 13 26 3.55 22.4 17.25 26.82
13.56 12.3 14 Los Angeles FC 2 19 4.7 10.7 2.71 17.09
10 9 12.36 Los Angeles Galaxy 6 20 4.45 9.3 4.7 14.29
8.67 10.1 11.09 Minnesota United 5 15 2.84 14.9 8.64 23.7
13.89 14.8 10.73 Montreal (C.F.) 8 15 2.34 15.5 10.73 20
4.22 4.4 5.09 Nashville SC 3 7 1.12 9.7 4.22 18
1.22 1.2 1.18 NE. Revolution 1 4 0.87 3.7 1.18 9.14
4.67 5.8 5.82 New York City FC 1 9 2.32 5.3 2.58 11.86
19.22 19.6 18.18 New York RB 10 22 3.76 15.6 9.58 21.5
8.67 9.7 15.18 Orlando City 9 20 3.33 7.8 3.17 15.18
10.78 10.2 9.45 Philadelphia Union 5 13 2.84 8.1 3.14 12.75
15.89 12.6 10.91 Portland Timbers 6 23 4.94 14.5 8.93 19.36
14 15.3 12.27 Real Salt Lake 5 18 3.91 14.4 10.38 23.71
17.67 18.4 19.18 San Jose Earthquakes 14 26 3.2 18.3 7.1 23.42
3.67 2.6 3.18 Seattle Sounders 2 8 1.85 2 1 4
4.67 4.2 2.45 Sporting Kansas City 1 6 1.33 4.4 1.82 11.75
26.89 27 26.55 Toronto FC 24 27 0.96 22.4 13.43 27
15.44 18.2 18.09 Vancouver Whitecaps 10 21 3.04 21.1 15.44 25.73

Site Bias

All sites are going to have bias, whether conscious (blogs) or due to analytic calculation (based on past performance). This section lets you see the extent that sites are biased for/against teams. Negative totals (-) are bias FOR, positive numbers (+) are bias AGAINST.

2021 Power Ranking Bias

SITE BIAS AVG SAG 538 W-S MASS SON ESPN FBOSS MLS 3-DEG SCS USSP FRBRG BWAY CL+CO CO+CR TEAM AVG
SITE BIAS AVG SAG 538 W-S MASS SON ESPN FBOSS MLS 3-DEG SCS USSP FRBRG BWAY CL+CO CO+CR TEAM AVG
Atlanta United FC 13.9 -1.04 0.87 -0.99 -3.04 -0.85 2.25 0.6 1.48 1.48 0.34 1.3 -1.03 0.39 3.83 1.53 ATL 13.9
Austin FC 19.1 -2.46 3.81 -0.46 -1.77 3.76 1.55 -1.95 1.95 -1.95 -0.75 2.9 -0.85 2.55 -3.57 -0.67 AUS 19.1
Chicago Fire 23.6 0.49 -1.05 -6.6 0.69 2.4 -0.1 0.2 0.26 1.48 2.4 1 1.65 0.34 -10.2 1.4 CHI 23.6
Colorado Rapids 8.2 0.39 -0.61 -1.56 -0.06 -0.3 -0.55 2.35 0.94 -0.89 -1.08 0.6 -2.01 -0.08 4.2 -2.06 COL 8.2
Columbus SC 12.2 -0.75 2.66 3.44 -2.3 -0.72 -0.85 -5.75 -0.2 -3.74 0.39 -3.8 1.18 4.8 8.07 3.37 CLB 12.2
D.C. United 16.9 1.46 1.65 -0.13 -2.9 3.15 -0.25 2.1 -0.66 3.56 -0.31 0.1 -2.34 -3.78 -13.5 1.96 DCU 16.9
FC Cincinnati 24.6 -0.1 1.4 -1.46 -1.31 0.3 0.3 -0.75 0.4 -0.83 -0.54 0.2 -2.29 1.52 -0.87 0.54 CIN 24.6
FC Dallas 19.2 -1.43 -0.84 -3.84 1.75 -0.87 0.8 1.35 0.42 -0.05 1.74 2 0.61 -0.91 -0.53 2.8 FCD 19.2
Houston Dynamo 19.8 0.43 -0.89 2.56 -1.51 -1.23 -1.55 3.05 1.2 -2.26 -2.04 -0.8 1.26 0.32 4.93 -2.09 HOU 19.8
Inter Miami CF 22.4 -0.35 -3.49 1.96 0.5 1.46 -2.7 3.3 -0.78 2.75 -0.52 1.2 -0.77 2.19 -2.8 -2.4 MIA 22.4
Los Angeles FC 10.7 -2.61 -4.29 -2.65 1.78 -2.6 2.4 6.1 0.3 0.92 4.01 2.9 2.99 1.83 -6.7 3.44 LFC 10.7
L.A. Galaxy 9.3 -0.12 0.88 3.7 2.13 2.99 -1.65 -1.65 -1.06 -1.3 -2.71 -1.3 0.7 -3.3 11.97 -5.44 LAG 9.3
Minnesota United FC 14.9 0.83 -1.26 2.15 3.1 -3.95 -0.15 -4.1 -1.19 -0.75 3.69 0.3 -0.03 -0.78 -7.77 2.39 MIN 14.9
Montreal (CF) 15.5 1.09 2.77 -1.73 -2.02 2.55 -2.05 2.55 0.02 5.58 -3.62 1.1 -3.69 0.56 -0.23 -3.79 MTL 15.5
Nashville SC 9.7 1.8 2.07 -3.34 2.73 1.3 -1 -1.75 -0.46 0.92 0.36 -1.7 0.36 -5.58 -3.1 -0.13 NAS 9.7
New Eng. Revolution 3.7 2.07 -1.43 0.35 -0.22 2.16 -0.8 0.2 -1.65 1.76 -0.94 -1.5 -1.51 0.42 3.03 -0.84 NER 3.7
New York City FC 5.3 -0.07 -1.85 0.97 -0.63 -0.97 3.45 -1.45 0.8 2.7 0.41 -0.9 1.7 -2.18 -4.03 2.99 NYC 5.3
New York RB 15.6 -0.33 0.04 -5.46 -0.27 0.92 2.55 -0.1 2.26 1.02 0.34 -0.6 -1.1 -2.07 -4.24 2.69 NYR 15.6
Orlando City SC 7.8 0.25 -0.71 2.84 -1.47 -0.51 0.15 1.75 -1.42 1.2 -2.51 -2.8 -0.86 1.38 4.13 -0.51 ORL 7.8
Philadelphia Union 8.1 1.58 -2.01 -3.28 0.66 1.76 1.15 -5.15 -1.15 1.59 2.02 -2.1 2.9 3.19 1.97 2.9 PHI 8.1
Portland Timbers 14.5 1.32 -2.82 3.86 2.98 -0.64 2.35 -6.1 -3.02 -6.81 1.21 1.3 2.19 2.03 5.17 0.79 POR 14.5
Real Salt Lake 14.4 -1.17 1.83 -1.63 -0.21 -2.97 -0.2 3.15 1.74 -0.17 -4.11 2 0.54 -3.75 6.2 -3.83 RSL 14.4
San Jose Earthquakes 18.3 0.34 0.84 2.61 0.08 -2.44 -2.05 1.95 0.13 -0.45 -0.89 -2.9 1.2 -0.18 0.77 -4.87 SJE 18.3
Seattle Sounders FC 2 0.27 -0.09 -0.18 -0.1 -0.62 0.15 0.65 -0.19 0.08 -0.59 -0.6 0.94 0.24 3.4 -0.29 SEA 2
Sporting Kansas City 4.4 -0.9 -0.17 0.6 0.03 0.03 -0.55 3.15 0.84 -1.02 0.13 0.8 -1.4 -1.58 -0.73 -0.97 SKC 4.4
Toronto FC 22.4 -1.26 -0.35 4.15 -0.26 -1.11 1.5 -5.45 -0.59 -3.4 2.31 2.2 1.16 1.6 -0.33 3.6 TFC 22.4
Vancouver Whitecaps FC 21.1 0.58 3.54 -0.78 0.19 -2.58 -3.75 2.15 0.09 -1.1 -0.92 -0.5 -1.04 1.14 1.5 -1.96 VAN 21.1
MOST BIAS VS 2.07 3.81 4.15 3.1 3.76 3.45 6.1 2.26 5.58 4.01 2.9 2.99 4.8 11.97 3.6 BIAS VS
MOST BIAS FOR -2.61 -4.29 -6.6 -3.04 -3.95 -3.75 -6.1 -3.02 -6.81 -4.11 -3.8 -3.69 -5.58 -13.5 -5.44 BIAS FOR