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Only 9 sites published for the final week of 2022.
Sites Used
- Jeff Sagarin
- Five Thirty Eight (Proj. points)
- Who Scored
- ESPN - No ranking wk 34.
- Massey
- Sonny Moore Rankings
- MLS
- Verses Sports Simulator
- Simmons Ratings
- Freeborg Power Index - No ranking wk 33-34.
- MLS Network - No ranking wk 30-34.
- Betting Odds (avg. of mult. sites)
- Broadway Sports - No ranking wk 33-34.
- US Soccer Players (monthly) - No ranking wk 34.
You may notice the inclusion of ‘analytic’ sites; they serve to function as a ‘control group’ to the rest which are based on personal opinions. There are also sites included that some will argue are ‘prediction rankings’ - but that also is a form of Power Ranking is (see the quote at the top) since it uses algorithms to calculate a team’s likely final position.
Bias for or against certain teams are sometimes an unfortunate feature of power rankings. It can be based on their analytic formula, or the raters preference. In some cases the bias can become extreme - If you feel a site got the ratings wrong for your team I invite you to contact them regarding it.
I will typically only remove sites for two reasons.
- Duplicating / copying ratings from another source on the list.
- Failure to update for 6 consecutive weeks. Previous ratings will not be removed, but new ones may or may not be added. I will still periodically check them to see if they have resumed.
All the averages use the Olympic method (I.E. Truncated Mean value) of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and then averaging the rest to reduce bias.
The full spreadsheeet is here.
2022 Power Ranking Average
Place | Team | Wk 33 | Wk 34 | Wk Best | Wk Worst | Std. Dev | 2022 Avg | 5-yr avg |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Place | Team | Wk 33 | Wk 34 | Wk Best | Wk Worst | Std. Dev | 2022 Avg | 5-yr avg |
21 | Atlanta United FC | 20.67 | 20.86 | 10 | 25 | 4.46 | 17.6 | 11.0832 |
5 | Austin FC | 5.22 | 6.14 | 5 | 17 | 4.02 | 7.2 | 12.992 |
23 | Charlotte FC | 20 | 21.71 | 16 | 27 | 3.61 | 22.8 | 14.784 |
24 | Chicago Fire | 23.56 | 22.71 | 17 | 24 | 2.17 | 20.7 | 19.678 |
10 | Cincinnati (FC) | 11.11 | 9.57 | 7 | 13 | 1.87 | 17.5 | 19.634 |
18 | Colorado Rapids | 20.44 | 18.71 | 14 | 22 | 2.65 | 16 | 15.666 |
12 | Columbus Crew SC | 8.89 | 12.71 | 4 | 16 | 3.76 | 11.3 | 10.859 |
28 | D.C. United | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 0 | 24.5 | 17.176 |
6 | Dallas (FC) | 5.89 | 6.29 | 4 | 16 | 3.82 | 8.5 | 11.1342 |
26 | Houston Dynamo | 24.56 | 25.43 | 24 | 27 | 0.88 | 22 | 17.22 |
15 | Inter Miami CF | 14 | 15.14 | 11 | 21 | 3.91 | 21.3 | 17.622 |
9 | L.A. Galaxy | 10.33 | 8.57 | 6 | 12 | 2.06 | 9.8 | 11.408 |
2 | Los Angeles FC | 1.56 | 1.71 | 1 | 3 | 0.67 | 2 | 5.5268 |
11 | Minnesota United FC | 15.22 | 12.14 | 7 | 17 | 2.93 | 11 | 12.076 |
3 | Montreal (CF) | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 3.06 | 10.2 | 14.52 |
7 | Nashville SC | 8.11 | 6.86 | 4 | 10 | 1.96 | 8.7 | 11.874 |
17 | New England Revolution | 20 | 18.29 | 6 | 23 | 4.77 | 14.7 | 12.164 |
4 | New York City FC | 6.33 | 4.86 | 3 | 10 | 2.11 | 6.6 | 6.5156 |
8 | New York RB | 7.11 | 7.29 | 5 | 10 | 1.58 | 6.4 | 9.5228 |
16 | Orlando City SC | 14.11 | 15.86 | 13 | 23 | 3.87 | 13.5 | 13.312 |
1 | Philadelphia Union | 1.44 | 1.29 | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 6.902 |
14 | Portland Timbers | 11.67 | 14 | 7 | 16 | 2.79 | 13.8 | 11.134 |
13 | Real Salt Lake | 14.44 | 13 | 9 | 15 | 1.79 | 10.8 | 13.31 |
25 | San Jose Earthquakes | 25 | 24.43 | 19 | 26 | 2.65 | 23.8 | 18.838 |
19 | Seattle Sounders FC | 19.44 | 19.43 | 12 | 23 | 3.91 | 13.9 | 7.384 |
22 | Sporting Kansas City | 20.22 | 21.14 | 16 | 26 | 3.14 | 23.5 | 10.9248 |
27 | Toronto FC | 25.67 | 26.43 | 20 | 27 | 2.54 | 21.7 | 14.724 |
20 | Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 18.56 | 20.14 | 16 | 25 | 3.49 | 22.6 | 19.364 |
- Highest Standard Deviation: New England Revolution 4.77
- Lowest Standard Deviation: D.C. United 0.0
- Biggest Rise: Minnesota United up 5.
- Biggest Fall: Charlotte FC down 4.
- New Lows: DCU (28th x16).
- New Highs: MTL (3rd x6), PHI (1st x13), SEA (19th x3).
Site Bias
All sites are going to have bias, whether conscious (blogs) or due to analytic calculation (based on past performance). This section lets you see the extent that sites are biased for/against teams. Negative totals (-) are bias FOR, positive numbers (+) are bias AGAINST.
This bias list is based on Season Average and not weekly ranking.
2022 Power Ranking Bias
SITE BIAS | AVG | Sag | 538 | Wh Sc | Mass | Son | ESPN | MLS | Odds | VSS | Sim | USSP | M-NW | Fbrg | B-way | AVG |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SITE BIAS | AVG | Sag | 538 | Wh Sc | Mass | Son | ESPN | MLS | Odds | VSS | Sim | USSP | M-NW | Fbrg | B-way | AVG |
Atlanta United FC | 17.6 | 0.2 | -1.6 | -5.9 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | -1.2 | 2.4 | 0.1 | 2 | -6 | 1.1 | -3.1 | 17.6 |
Austin FC | 7.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 3.2 | -1.6 | 1.7 | -0.6 | 0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1.2 | -0.3 | -2.5 | -2.2 | 7.2 |
Charlotte FC | 22.8 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 1.2 | -0.7 | 3.5 | -1.6 | -1.5 | 0.5 | -1 | 0.2 | -0.4 | 0.6 | -1.5 | -1 | 22.8 |
Chicago Fire | 20.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | -7.1 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 3.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | -0.6 | -0.1 | -0.8 | 20.7 |
Cincinnati (FC) | 17.5 | 2.1 | 2 | -1 | 0.9 | 2 | -0.2 | -1.5 | 2.2 | -1.9 | 0.1 | 1.4 | -2 | -2.7 | -5.2 | 17.5 |
Colorado Rapids | 16 | -2.4 | 0.3 | 1.9 | 0.9 | -0.7 | -0.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | -0.8 | -2.3 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 1.3 | -3.5 | 16 |
Columbus Crew SC | 11.3 | -0.8 | -0.5 | -4.8 | -1.2 | -0.3 | 1.8 | 3 | 2.8 | -0.9 | 0.2 | -1.9 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 0.3 | 11.3 |
D.C. United | 24.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | -1.1 | 0.3 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0 | -0.5 | 0.1 | 0 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 24.5 |
Dallas (FC) | 8.5 | -0.6 | 0.7 | 4.4 | -0.1 | -2.8 | -1.2 | 0.3 | 3.6 | -1.1 | -0.4 | -0.1 | 0.5 | 0.8 | -1.9 | 8.5 |
Houston Dynamo | 22 | 0.4 | 2.8 | -0.9 | 0.4 | -1.1 | -1.5 | -0.3 | 1.1 | -0.2 | 0.2 | -2.3 | 1.9 | -0.7 | -1.9 | 22 |
Inter Miami CF | 21.3 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 1.1 | -0.4 | 0.4 | -1.7 | -1 | -0.4 | -2 | 2 | -0.7 | -0.3 | -2.5 | 1.4 | 21.3 |
L.A. Galaxy | 9.8 | 0.3 | -1.7 | 2.2 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0 | -2.2 | 0.6 | 1 | 1.3 | -1.7 | 1.3 | -1 | 9.8 |
Los Angeles FC | 2 | 0.4 | -0.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0 | -0.8 | 0.1 | -0.9 | 0.6 | 1.5 | -0.1 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.4 | 2 |
Minnesota United FC | 11 | -1.1 | -0.5 | -6 | -2.1 | -2.5 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | -0.7 | 2.8 | 4.5 | -0.2 | 3.2 | 11 |
Montreal (CF) | 10.2 | 0.9 | -0.8 | 10.1 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.5 | -1.5 | 1.1 | -0.5 | 0.2 | -0.6 | -2.3 | -3.5 | -3.3 | 10.2 |
Nashville SC | 8.7 | -1.7 | -0.3 | 2.1 | -1.7 | 0.2 | -1.6 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 1.8 | -2.5 | 2.4 | 3 | -0.5 | -1 | 8.7 |
New England Revolution | 14.7 | -0.2 | -0.9 | -7.5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | -4.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 14.7 |
New York City FC | 6.6 | 1.2 | -3.5 | -1.8 | 0.5 | 3.1 | 3.2 | -1.7 | -3 | 2.2 | 0.2 | -0.1 | 1.3 | 2 | -4.5 | 6.6 |
New York RB | 6.4 | -1.4 | -1.2 | -0.1 | -0.3 | 0.7 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 3.3 | -0.5 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 0.5 | -1.9 | 6.4 |
Orlando City SC | 13.5 | 2.6 | -0.7 | 7 | 0.4 | -0.1 | -1.4 | -0.5 | -2.1 | -1 | 0 | -1.3 | -2.7 | -0.7 | 6.2 | 13.5 |
Philadelphia Union | 2.5 | -0.6 | 0.4 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 2.5 |
Portland Timbers | 13.8 | -1.4 | 3.1 | -6 | 0.6 | -2.7 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 1.2 | -0.1 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 13.8 |
Real Salt Lake | 10.8 | 0.3 | 1 | 1.5 | -0.3 | -2.1 | -2.1 | 1.6 | 4.2 | -2.1 | -1.2 | -1.7 | -1.1 | -0.3 | 4 | 10.8 |
San Jose Earthquakes | 23.8 | -1.5 | 0.8 | -3.9 | -0.1 | -3 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 | -0.7 | -0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | -1.5 | 1.3 | 23.8 |
Seattle Sounders FC | 13.9 | -3.9 | -0.7 | 2.5 | 0.2 | 2 | 3.4 | -4.8 | -5.2 | 3.2 | -0.3 | -3.3 | -1.5 | 0.8 | 2.5 | 13.9 |
Sporting Kansas City | 23.5 | -2.9 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 1.4 | -1.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | -2.4 | -0.5 | 0 | -0.9 | -0.1 | 0.9 | 3.4 | 23.5 |
Toronto FC | 21.7 | 2.7 | 2.2 | -6.1 | -0.3 | 0.6 | -2.3 | 0.9 | -5.9 | -0.3 | 2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 3.8 | 21.7 |
Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 22.6 | 0.3 | -0.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | -3.6 | 0.5 | -0.2 | 0 | -2.5 | 0.9 | -1.6 | 0 | -1.1 | 2.7 | 22.6 |
Most Bias | VS | 2.7 | 3.1 | 10.1 | 1.4 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 2 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 6.2 | VS |
Most Bias | FOR | -3.9 | -3.5 | -7.5 | -2.1 | -3.6 | -2.3 | -4.8 | -5.9 | -2.5 | -2.5 | -3.3 | -2.7 | -3.5 | -5.2 | FOR |
WEEK ACCURACY | Exact | 1 off | 2 off | 3 off | 4 off | 5 off | 6 off | 7+ off | ||||||||
Jeff Sagarin | 9 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | ||||||||
FiveThirtyEight | 10 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||
Who Scored | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 | ||||||||
ESPN | N/A | |||||||||||||||
Massey | 9 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | ||||||||
Sonny Moore | 6 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | ||||||||
Versus Sports Simulator | 9 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ||||||||
Simmons Ratings | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||
MLS Network | N/A | |||||||||||||||
MLS Soccer | 7 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ||||||||
Freeborg Power Index | N/A | |||||||||||||||
Betting Odds | 6 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||
US Soccer Players | N/A | |||||||||||||||
Broadway Sports | N/A |
- Most accurate site of the week: Simmons Ratings with 13 teams exactly on average.
- Least accurate site of the week: Who Scored with 11 off by 7+.
SITE FINAL EVALUATION
Here are the teams each site was most bias for/against for 2022.
- Jeff Sagarin - VS: Inter Miami (2.69 lower). FOR: Seattle Sounders (3.98 higher).
- Five Thirty Eight - VS: Portland Timbers (3.09 lower). FOR: New York City FC (3.45 higher).
- Who Scored - VS: CF Montreal (10.09 lower). FOR: New England Revolution: (7.47 higher).
- ESPN - VS: Seattle Sounders (3.3 lower). FOR: Toronto FC (2.3 higher).
- Massey - VS: Atlanta United (2.18 lower). FOR: Minnesota United (2.06 higher).
- Sonny Moore - VS: Charlotte FC (3.47 lower). FOR: Vancouver Whitecaps (3.62 higher).
- MLS - VS: Columbus Crew (3.02 lower). FOR: Seattle Sounders (4.85 higher).
- Verses Sports Simulator - VS: New York Red Bulls (3.22 lower). FOR: Vancouver Whitecaps (2.56 higher).
- Simmons Ratings - VS: Inter Miami (2.0 lower). FOR: Nashville SC (2.44 higher).
- Freeborg Power Index - VS: New England Revolution (3.31 lower). FOR: CF Montreal (3.53 higher).
- MLS Network - VS: Minnesota United (4.51 lower). FOR: Atlanta United (6.02 higher).
- Betting Odds - VS: Real Salt Lake (4.21 lower). FOR: Toronto FC (5.94 higher).
- Broadway Sports - VS: Orlando SC (6.23 lower). FOR: Cincinnati FC (5.19 higher).
- US Soccer Players - VS: Minnesota United (2.78 lower). FOR: Seattle Sounders (3.32 higher).
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