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Power Ranking Averages - Preseason

9 sites published preseason rankings.

By Kreg Asay
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Power Rankings

Welcome to the 11th year of Power Ranking Averages! Yes that’s right, I started this project way back in 2012.

I’m still compiling the list of sites to use this year, many of the usual suspects have already published preseason rankings, and will likely continue throughout the season; others are new and we’ll see if they last. One new addition that I’m testing out this year is betting odds - I’ve found a site that lists odds from multiple betting platforms/sites, I’ll take an average of those odds and sort them into high/low order for the odds ranking.

A reminder of what Power Rankings should be (not that every site does of course...):

”If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?”

-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk.  3/11/14

Sites Used

You may notice the inclusion of ‘analytic’ sites; they serve to function as a ‘control group’ to the rest which are based on personal opinions. There are also sites included that some will argue are ‘prediction rankings’ - but that also is a form of Power Ranking is (see the quote at the top) since it uses algorithms to calculate a team’s likely final position.

Bias for or against certain teams are sometimes an unfortunate feature of power rankings. It can be based on their analytic formula, or the raters preference. In some cases the bias can become extreme - If you feel a site got the ratings wrong for your team I invite you to contact them regarding it.

I will typically only remove sites for two reasons.

  1. Duplicating / copying ratings from another source on the list.
  2. Failure to update for 6 consecutive weeks. Previous ratings will not be removed, but new ones may or may not be added. I will still periodically check them to see if they have resumed.

All the averages use the Olympic method (I.E. Truncated Mean value) of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and then averaging the rest to reduce bias.

The full spreadsheeet is here.

2022 Power Ranking Average

Place Team Wk 10 Wk 11 Wk Best Wk Worst Std. Dev 2021 Avg
Place Team Wk 10 Wk 11 Wk Best Wk Worst Std. Dev 2021 Avg
18 Atlanta United FC 15.83 16.17 10 22 3.06 14.7
8 Austin FC 7.75 9.25 3 18 3.44 12.3
23 Charlotte FC 20.83 22.67 20 28 2.35 23.9
25 Chicago Fire 21.92 24.33 22 27 1.6 16.1
14 Cincinnati (FC) 17.75 14.67 7 27 5.46 24.1
12 Colorado Rapids 15.33 12.75 10 15 1.54 11.7
15 Columbus Crew SC 12.83 15.08 9 19 3.56 10.7
21 D.C. United 21.83 21.75 19 25 1.85 19.4
1 Dallas (FC) 6.42 2.58 1 8 2.28 10.8
20 Houston Dynamo 22.33 19.42 13 23 3.09 20.3
26 Inter Miami CF 25.75 25.92 23 28 1.7 25.3
7 L.A. Galaxy 4 6.92 4 15 2.84 7.9
2 Los Angeles FC 1.25 2.67 1 9 2.08 2.8
17 Minnesota United FC 11.42 15.83 5 20 3.89 10.2
6 Montreal (CF) 8.5 5.83 1 15 3.74 17.5
9 Nashville SC 6.75 9.92 4 14 2.99 7.5
19 New England Revolution 16.25 16.58 6 22 5.01 13.3
5 New York City FC 7 5.25 1 11 3.27 9.8
4 New York RB 5.42 4.33 2 7 1.45 6.3
10 Orlando City SC 11.58 10.42 7 18 3.05 11.7
3 Philadelphia Union 2.17 2.92 1 11 2.59 3.3
13 Portland Timbers 15 13.33 7 18 3.91 12.8
11 Real Salt Lake 13.08 11.75 6 17 2.49 11.7
22 San Jose Earthquakes 23.58 22.17 20 27 2.27 24.3
16 Seattle Sounders FC 17.17 15.5 5 24 5.18 12.4
27 Sporting Kansas City 24.33 26.25 20 28 2.53 20.5
24 Toronto FC 22.5 23.92 18 28 3.29 19.2
28 Vancouver Whitecaps FC 26.5 26.5 22 28 1.54 24.6
  • Highest Standard Deviation: Los Angeles FC 6.83
  • Lowest Standard Deviation: Cincinnati FC 1.09
  • Biggest Rise: TBD wk 2
  • Biggest Fall: TBD wk 2

Site Bias

All sites are going to have bias, whether conscious (blogs) or due to analytic calculation (based on past performance). This section lets you see the extent that sites are biased for/against teams. Negative totals (-) are bias FOR, positive numbers (+) are bias AGAINST.

Site Bias will start on Wk 2.

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