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Power Ranking Averages - Week 4 (3/24/22)

12 sites published rankings, FCD rise - NER fall.

Power Rankings

Only 12 sites published this week. Some late additions have changed the week 3 averages and positions. I expect at least one or two more to publish after I do, so totals (and the 2 way tie for 6th) will change.

Sites Used

You may notice the inclusion of ‘analytic’ sites; they serve to function as a ‘control group’ to the rest which are based on personal opinions. There are also sites included that some will argue are ‘prediction rankings’ - but that also is a form of Power Ranking is (see the quote at the top) since it uses algorithms to calculate a team’s likely final position.

Bias for or against certain teams are sometimes an unfortunate feature of power rankings. It can be based on their analytic formula, or the raters preference. In some cases the bias can become extreme - If you feel a site got the ratings wrong for your team I invite you to contact them regarding it.

I will typically only remove sites for two reasons.

  1. Duplicating / copying ratings from another source on the list.
  2. Failure to update for 6 consecutive weeks. Previous ratings will not be removed, but new ones may or may not be added. I will still periodically check them to see if they have resumed.

All the averages use the Olympic method (I.E. Truncated Mean value) of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and then averaging the rest to reduce bias.

The full spreadsheeet is here.

2022 Power Ranking Average

Place Team Wk 10 Wk 11 Wk Best Wk Worst Std. Dev 2021 Avg
Place Team Wk 10 Wk 11 Wk Best Wk Worst Std. Dev 2021 Avg
18 Atlanta United FC 15.83 16.17 10 22 3.06 14.7
8 Austin FC 7.75 9.25 3 18 3.44 12.3
23 Charlotte FC 20.83 22.67 20 28 2.35 23.9
25 Chicago Fire 21.92 24.33 22 27 1.6 16.1
14 Cincinnati (FC) 17.75 14.67 7 27 5.46 24.1
12 Colorado Rapids 15.33 12.75 10 15 1.54 11.7
15 Columbus Crew SC 12.83 15.08 9 19 3.56 10.7
21 D.C. United 21.83 21.75 19 25 1.85 19.4
1 Dallas (FC) 6.42 2.58 1 8 2.28 10.8
20 Houston Dynamo 22.33 19.42 13 23 3.09 20.3
26 Inter Miami CF 25.75 25.92 23 28 1.7 25.3
7 L.A. Galaxy 4 6.92 4 15 2.84 7.9
2 Los Angeles FC 1.25 2.67 1 9 2.08 2.8
17 Minnesota United FC 11.42 15.83 5 20 3.89 10.2
6 Montreal (CF) 8.5 5.83 1 15 3.74 17.5
9 Nashville SC 6.75 9.92 4 14 2.99 7.5
19 New England Revolution 16.25 16.58 6 22 5.01 13.3
5 New York City FC 7 5.25 1 11 3.27 9.8
4 New York RB 5.42 4.33 2 7 1.45 6.3
10 Orlando City SC 11.58 10.42 7 18 3.05 11.7
3 Philadelphia Union 2.17 2.92 1 11 2.59 3.3
13 Portland Timbers 15 13.33 7 18 3.91 12.8
11 Real Salt Lake 13.08 11.75 6 17 2.49 11.7
22 San Jose Earthquakes 23.58 22.17 20 27 2.27 24.3
16 Seattle Sounders FC 17.17 15.5 5 24 5.18 12.4
27 Sporting Kansas City 24.33 26.25 20 28 2.53 20.5
24 Toronto FC 22.5 23.92 18 28 3.29 19.2
28 Vancouver Whitecaps FC 26.5 26.5 22 28 1.54 24.6

Site Bias

All sites are going to have bias, whether conscious (blogs) or due to analytic calculation (based on past performance). This section lets you see the extent that sites are biased for/against teams. Negative totals (-) are bias FOR, positive numbers (+) are bias AGAINST.

2022 Power Ranking Bias

SITE BIAS AVG J-Sag 538 Who Scrd Mass Sonny ESPN SCS MLS Co+Cr Odds VSS Simmons USSP MLSNW WTR F-Boss Fr-Borg
SITE BIAS AVG J-Sag 538 Who Scrd Mass Sonny ESPN SCS MLS Co+Cr Odds VSS Simmons USSP MLSNW WTR F-Boss Fr-Borg
Atlanta United FC 14.7 1.8 -3.2 1.7 3.2 4.1 -1 -2.4 0.1 -1.1 -1.7 0.1 0.1 -2 -8.7 5.5 -0.3 1.6
Austin FC 12.3 3 1.4 -6.1 -4.5 4.8 -1.7 -8.1 -0.7 -10.7 5.6 1.8 1.8 0 0.4 -2 5.4 -5.7
Charlotte FC 23.9 2.6 0.9 -1.2 0.3 3 -0.2 -0.6 -1 -0.2 1.4 -2 0.9 1.8 0.7 -1.7 -4.5 -3.6
Chicago Fire 16.1 3.8 2.3 -8.2 -1.8 3 -0.1 -7.3 1.4 -3.4 5.5 -0.6 1.3 -1.1 -1.8 -6.1 4.6 1.3
Cincinnati (FC) 24.1 2.5 2.2 -2.1 -0.3 2.6 0.4 -2.9 -2.6 -0.2 1.4 -1.9 0.3 1.2 -2.5 0.9 3.6 -4.7
Colorado Rapids 11.7 -4.1 2.5 3.3 2.1 2.2 -0.1 2 -0.7 4 -3 -2.5 -2.5 -2.7 0.7 -1.7 -1.1 2
Columbus Crew SC 10.7 -0.4 -3 -3.7 -2.8 -2.4 -0.3 -3.7 3.2 -3.7 5.6 2 0.5 -3.4 6 2.6 -2 8.3
D.C. United 19.4 1.3 0.4 -3 -0.2 2.9 1.4 -8.2 2.8 -6.4 -0.6 0.4 -0.9 1.9 2.5 -1.4 -1.7 3.7
Dallas (FC) 10.8 0.4 0.6 0.6 -0.5 -2.6 -2.2 1.9 -0.1 0.1 5.5 -1.8 1.1 2.2 -0.3 -2.5 5.2 -4.4
Houston Dynamo 20.3 0.8 3.9 -0.8 0.4 -1.1 -3.6 -4.5 -0.7 -5.2 3 -1.4 0.7 -1 1.3 -2.8 4.8 -3.7
Inter Miami CF 25.3 1 1.5 0.3 0.8 0.9 -1.3 -1.1 -0.6 -0.4 0.4 -1.1 1.1 -0.6 -2.6 -0.6 -2.3 -2.7
L.A. Galaxy 7.9 2.2 -2.2 1.4 0.9 3.4 -2.7 -1.2 -1 0.2 -2.2 1.9 1.9 2.1 -3.1 -0.4 -0.1 -2.5
Los Angeles FC 2.8 1.3 -1.8 -0.1 0.4 0.5 -1.7 0.9 0.5 0.2 -1.6 0.2 3.2 0.5 -0.9 -1.1 9.4 -1.4
Minnesota United FC 10.2 -1.7 -0.5 -6 -2.6 -5 1.2 2.8 3.5 1.1 5.5 -0.1 -0.3 2.1 7.8 -2 1.1 0.1
Montreal (CF) 17.5 -1.1 -1.2 6.3 0.3 2.3 0.3 3.5 -3.7 1.9 2.5 -0.8 -1.1 -0.5 -6.4 3.5 0.9 -8.8
Nashville SC 7.5 -2.3 -0.3 5.3 -2.3 0.3 -2.7 3.8 -0.8 5.1 1.7 1.3 -5.2 3.8 2.7 0.7 -4.7 -0.9
New England Revolution 13.3 -0.3 -2 -2.6 3.9 -3.5 1.1 4.2 -0.4 4.6 -8.8 2.9 0.9 -3.3 2.2 4.4 -8.2 10.4
New York City FC 9.8 3.6 -7.2 0.1 3.2 2.7 2.2 5 -5.2 4.8 -6.1 4.2 -0.4 -3.5 -0.4 5.4 -7 3.3
New York RB 6.3 -4.1 -2.2 -1.7 -1.6 0.9 -0.3 -2.1 2.2 -2.3 2.9 4.8 -2.2 3.7 5.6 1.5 -1 1.1
Orlando City SC 11.7 1.9 0.1 4.8 -1.3 -1.7 1.3 -1.4 0.8 -2.3 2.3 1 -0.5 2.3 -4.2 -6 2 -1.8
Philadelphia Union 3.3 -1.1 0.5 0.7 0.5 -0.9 0.7 3.5 -0.4 2.4 0.3 1 -0.1 0.4 0.2 0 -0.9 0.6
Portland Timbers 12.8 -0.7 5.5 -3.6 1.4 -4.4 -1.9 5.5 2.3 2.5 -2.5 -1.6 2 4.2 0.4 -1.6 -5.5 3.8
Real Salt Lake 11.7 -1.5 4.1 0.5 -1.6 -0.4 -1.1 -4.5 3.9 -1.8 4.1 -3.2 -2.4 -1 0.6 -1.7 1.1 0.2
San Jose Earthquakes 24.3 -1.7 0.4 -1.6 -1.8 -1.9 1.4 0.2 1.5 0.3 2 -1.6 -0.8 1 1.3 -0.8 1.6 -0.6
Seattle Sounders FC 12.4 -4.1 -1.7 11.3 2.9 -2 6.1 8.9 -8.9 8.9 -8.9 2.2 -0.5 -5.4 -4.2 4.1 -1 0.7
Sporting Kansas City 20.5 -4.9 -0.7 4.1 2.5 -2.9 3.5 2 2.2 2.9 -8.3 -1 -0.7 -3.2 1.5 0.3 -2.6 4.5
Toronto FC 19.2 4.7 2 -5.1 -3.2 -2 0.3 1 2.4 -2.5 -5.8 -1.1 3.1 -0.2 2.6 -0.9 6.4 -1.9
Vancouver Whitecaps FC 24.6 -2 -0.3 -0.7 2.2 -1.9 1.8 0.1 0.6 2.3 0 -2.4 -0.7 1.4 -0.6 1.9 -2.3 2
Most Bias VS 4.7 5.5 11.3 3.9 4.8 6.1 8.9 3.9 8.9 5.6 4.8 3.2 4.2 7.8 5.4 9.4 10.4
Most Bias FOR -4.9 -7.2 -8.2 -4.5 -5 -3.6 -8.2 -8.9 -10.7 -8.9 -3.2 -5.2 -5.4 -6.4 -6.1 -8.2 -8.8
WEEK ACCURACY Exact 1 off 2 off 3 off 4 off 5 off 6 off 7+ off
Jeff Sagarin 6 14 5 1 1 1 0 0 Good
FiveThirtyEight 5 10 6 2 3 2 0 0
Who Scored 2 6 4 3 1 2 4 6 Worst
ESPN 2 10 7 4 3 1 0 1
Massey 9 13 5 1 0 0 0 0 Best
Sonny Moore 7 5 6 2 3 3 1 1
Versus Sports Simulator 5 8 9 6 0 0 0 0 Excellent
Simmons Ratings 6 11 5 4 1 1 0 0
MLS Network 5 6 6 6 2 2 0 1
MLS Soccer 4 3 4 11 3 1 1 1
Freeborg Power Index 8 10 4 2 1 1 0 2
Sports Club Stats 8 6 8 1 2 3 0 0
Coach & Crew NA
Betting Odds 2 6 4 7 0 2 1 6 Poor
US Soccer Players NA
MLS Fantasy Boss 4 2 6 5 2 2 3 4
Waking The Red NA
  • Most bias for: Coach and Crew - Austin FC 13.58 better than average.
  • Most bias against: MLS Fantasy Boss - Los Angeles FC 15.16 worse than average (may change slightly after they publish this week, but will still likely be highest).