clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Power Ranking Averages - Week 4.5 (3/31/22)

It’s a half-week with only 3 games last week and only 8 sites publishing.

By Kreg Asay
/ new
Power Rankings

Only 8 sites published this week - all of them were the analytic sites. That makes for some interesting changes. It may be interesting at the end of the year to do a breakdown of analytic rankings vs non to see how they compare. Some late additions have changed the week 4 averages and positions.

A reminder of what Power Rankings should be (not that every site does of course...):

”If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?”

-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk.  3/11/14

Sites Used

You may notice the inclusion of ‘analytic’ sites; they serve to function as a ‘control group’ to the rest which are based on personal opinions. There are also sites included that some will argue are ‘prediction rankings’ - but that also is a form of Power Ranking is (see the quote at the top) since it uses algorithms to calculate a team’s likely final position.

Bias for or against certain teams are sometimes an unfortunate feature of power rankings. It can be based on their analytic formula, or the raters preference. In some cases the bias can become extreme - If you feel a site got the ratings wrong for your team I invite you to contact them regarding it.

I will typically only remove sites for two reasons.

  1. Duplicating / copying ratings from another source on the list.
  2. Failure to update for 6 consecutive weeks. Previous ratings will not be removed, but new ones may or may not be added. I will still periodically check them to see if they have resumed.

All the averages use the Olympic method (I.E. Truncated Mean value) of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and then averaging the rest to reduce bias.

The full spreadsheeet is here.

2022 Power Ranking Average

Place Team Wk 33 Wk 34 Wk Best Wk Worst Std. Dev 2022 Avg 5-yr avg
Place Team Wk 33 Wk 34 Wk Best Wk Worst Std. Dev 2022 Avg 5-yr avg
21 Atlanta United FC 20.67 20.86 10 25 4.46 17.6 11.0832
5 Austin FC 5.22 6.14 5 17 4.02 7.2 12.992
23 Charlotte FC 20 21.71 16 27 3.61 22.8 14.784
24 Chicago Fire 23.56 22.71 17 24 2.17 20.7 19.678
10 Cincinnati (FC) 11.11 9.57 7 13 1.87 17.5 19.634
18 Colorado Rapids 20.44 18.71 14 22 2.65 16 15.666
12 Columbus Crew SC 8.89 12.71 4 16 3.76 11.3 10.859
28 D.C. United 28 28 28 28 0 24.5 17.176
6 Dallas (FC) 5.89 6.29 4 16 3.82 8.5 11.1342
26 Houston Dynamo 24.56 25.43 24 27 0.88 22 17.22
15 Inter Miami CF 14 15.14 11 21 3.91 21.3 17.622
9 L.A. Galaxy 10.33 8.57 6 12 2.06 9.8 11.408
2 Los Angeles FC 1.56 1.71 1 3 0.67 2 5.5268
11 Minnesota United FC 15.22 12.14 7 17 2.93 11 12.076
3 Montreal (CF) 3 3 2 12 3.06 10.2 14.52
7 Nashville SC 8.11 6.86 4 10 1.96 8.7 11.874
17 New England Revolution 20 18.29 6 23 4.77 14.7 12.164
4 New York City FC 6.33 4.86 3 10 2.11 6.6 6.5156
8 New York RB 7.11 7.29 5 10 1.58 6.4 9.5228
16 Orlando City SC 14.11 15.86 13 23 3.87 13.5 13.312
1 Philadelphia Union 1.44 1.29 1 2 0.5 2.5 6.902
14 Portland Timbers 11.67 14 7 16 2.79 13.8 11.134
13 Real Salt Lake 14.44 13 9 15 1.79 10.8 13.31
25 San Jose Earthquakes 25 24.43 19 26 2.65 23.8 18.838
19 Seattle Sounders FC 19.44 19.43 12 23 3.91 13.9 7.384
22 Sporting Kansas City 20.22 21.14 16 26 3.14 23.5 10.9248
27 Toronto FC 25.67 26.43 20 27 2.54 21.7 14.724
20 Vancouver Whitecaps FC 18.56 20.14 16 25 3.49 22.6 19.364

Site Bias

All sites are going to have bias, whether conscious (blogs) or due to analytic calculation (based on past performance). This section lets you see the extent that sites are biased for/against teams. Negative totals (-) are bias FOR, positive numbers (+) are bias AGAINST.

2022 Power Ranking Bias

SITE BIAS AVG Sag 538 Wh Sc Mass Son ESPN MLS Odds VSS Sim USSP M-NW Fbrg B-way AVG
SITE BIAS AVG Sag 538 Wh Sc Mass Son ESPN MLS Odds VSS Sim USSP M-NW Fbrg B-way AVG
Atlanta United FC 17.6 0.2 -1.6 -5.9 2.2 3.4 0.6 0.7 -1.2 2.4 0.1 2 -6 1.1 -3.1 17.6
Austin FC 7.2 1.3 0.6 3.2 -1.6 1.7 -0.6 0 2.1 0.8 0.7 1.2 -0.3 -2.5 -2.2 7.2
Charlotte FC 22.8 1.8 0.1 1.2 -0.7 3.5 -1.6 -1.5 0.5 -1 0.2 -0.4 0.6 -1.5 -1 22.8
Chicago Fire 20.7 1.4 0.4 -7.1 -0.5 0.7 0.8 0.4 3.4 0.5 0.1 0.1 -0.6 -0.1 -0.8 20.7
Cincinnati (FC) 17.5 2.1 2 -1 0.9 2 -0.2 -1.5 2.2 -1.9 0.1 1.4 -2 -2.7 -5.2 17.5
Colorado Rapids 16 -2.4 0.3 1.9 0.9 -0.7 -0.6 0.1 0.1 -0.8 -2.3 0.1 0.8 1.3 -3.5 16
Columbus Crew SC 11.3 -0.8 -0.5 -4.8 -1.2 -0.3 1.8 3 2.8 -0.9 0.2 -1.9 2.3 3.1 0.3 11.3
D.C. United 24.5 0.9 0.2 -1.1 0.3 1 0.5 0.7 -0.5 0 -0.5 0.1 0 1.8 0.1 24.5
Dallas (FC) 8.5 -0.6 0.7 4.4 -0.1 -2.8 -1.2 0.3 3.6 -1.1 -0.4 -0.1 0.5 0.8 -1.9 8.5
Houston Dynamo 22 0.4 2.8 -0.9 0.4 -1.1 -1.5 -0.3 1.1 -0.2 0.2 -2.3 1.9 -0.7 -1.9 22
Inter Miami CF 21.3 2.7 0.3 1.1 -0.4 0.4 -1.7 -1 -0.4 -2 2 -0.7 -0.3 -2.5 1.4 21.3
L.A. Galaxy 9.8 0.3 -1.7 2.2 0 0.5 0.7 0 -2.2 0.6 1 1.3 -1.7 1.3 -1 9.8
Los Angeles FC 2 0.4 -0.9 0.6 0.1 0 -0.8 0.1 -0.9 0.6 1.5 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.4 2
Minnesota United FC 11 -1.1 -0.5 -6 -2.1 -2.5 0.1 1.6 2.9 1.1 -0.7 2.8 4.5 -0.2 3.2 11
Montreal (CF) 10.2 0.9 -0.8 10.1 0.2 0.8 0.5 -1.5 1.1 -0.5 0.2 -0.6 -2.3 -3.5 -3.3 10.2
Nashville SC 8.7 -1.7 -0.3 2.1 -1.7 0.2 -1.6 0.1 1.1 1.8 -2.5 2.4 3 -0.5 -1 8.7
New England Revolution 14.7 -0.2 -0.9 -7.5 1.1 0.9 1.7 0.4 -4.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.2 3.3 1.7 14.7
New York City FC 6.6 1.2 -3.5 -1.8 0.5 3.1 3.2 -1.7 -3 2.2 0.2 -0.1 1.3 2 -4.5 6.6
New York RB 6.4 -1.4 -1.2 -0.1 -0.3 0.7 -0.4 0.7 0.4 3.3 -0.5 0.2 2.3 0.5 -1.9 6.4
Orlando City SC 13.5 2.6 -0.7 7 0.4 -0.1 -1.4 -0.5 -2.1 -1 0 -1.3 -2.7 -0.7 6.2 13.5
Philadelphia Union 2.5 -0.6 0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 1 0 0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 2.5
Portland Timbers 13.8 -1.4 3.1 -6 0.6 -2.7 0.1 1.4 1.2 -0.1 0.6 1.8 1.3 0.9 1.8 13.8
Real Salt Lake 10.8 0.3 1 1.5 -0.3 -2.1 -2.1 1.6 4.2 -2.1 -1.2 -1.7 -1.1 -0.3 4 10.8
San Jose Earthquakes 23.8 -1.5 0.8 -3.9 -0.1 -3 1.7 1.8 1.9 -0.7 -0.7 0.9 0.6 -1.5 1.3 23.8
Seattle Sounders FC 13.9 -3.9 -0.7 2.5 0.2 2 3.4 -4.8 -5.2 3.2 -0.3 -3.3 -1.5 0.8 2.5 13.9
Sporting Kansas City 23.5 -2.9 0.2 2.4 1.4 -1.5 0.5 0.5 -2.4 -0.5 0 -0.9 -0.1 0.9 3.4 23.5
Toronto FC 21.7 2.7 2.2 -6.1 -0.3 0.6 -2.3 0.9 -5.9 -0.3 2 1.2 0.6 0.7 3.8 21.7
Vancouver Whitecaps FC 22.6 0.3 -0.6 2.5 1.2 -3.6 0.5 -0.2 0 -2.5 0.9 -1.6 0 -1.1 2.7 22.6
Most Bias VS 2.7 3.1 10.1 1.4 3.5 3.4 3 4.2 3.3 2 2.8 4.5 3.3 6.2 VS
Most Bias FOR -3.9 -3.5 -7.5 -2.1 -3.6 -2.3 -4.8 -5.9 -2.5 -2.5 -3.3 -2.7 -3.5 -5.2 FOR
WEEK ACCURACY Exact 1 off 2 off 3 off 4 off 5 off 6 off 7+ off
Jeff Sagarin 9 6 5 2 1 4 1 0
FiveThirtyEight 10 9 5 3 1 0 0 0
Who Scored 3 3 3 3 2 1 2 11
ESPN N/A
Massey 9 8 4 5 1 0 0 1
Sonny Moore 6 3 7 4 6 1 1 0
Versus Sports Simulator 9 6 9 2 1 0 1 0
Simmons Ratings 13 9 4 1 1 0 0 0
MLS Network N/A
MLS Soccer 7 9 3 5 3 0 1 0
Freeborg Power Index N/A
Betting Odds 6 8 4 6 4 0 0 0
US Soccer Players N/A
Broadway Sports N/A
  • Most bias for: Coach and Crew - Austin FC 14.47 better than average.
  • Most bias against: MLS Fantasy Boss - Los Angeles FC 14.22 worse than average (may change slightly after they publish rankings).

More From RSL Soapbox

Loading comments...