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Power Ranking Averages - Week 4.5 (3/31/22)

It’s a half-week with only 3 games last week and only 8 sites publishing.

Power Rankings

Only 8 sites published this week - all of them were the analytic sites. That makes for some interesting changes. It may be interesting at the end of the year to do a breakdown of analytic rankings vs non to see how they compare. Some late additions have changed the week 4 averages and positions.

Sites Used

You may notice the inclusion of ‘analytic’ sites; they serve to function as a ‘control group’ to the rest which are based on personal opinions. There are also sites included that some will argue are ‘prediction rankings’ - but that also is a form of Power Ranking is (see the quote at the top) since it uses algorithms to calculate a team’s likely final position.

Bias for or against certain teams are sometimes an unfortunate feature of power rankings. It can be based on their analytic formula, or the raters preference. In some cases the bias can become extreme - If you feel a site got the ratings wrong for your team I invite you to contact them regarding it.

I will typically only remove sites for two reasons.

  1. Duplicating / copying ratings from another source on the list.
  2. Failure to update for 6 consecutive weeks. Previous ratings will not be removed, but new ones may or may not be added. I will still periodically check them to see if they have resumed.

All the averages use the Olympic method (I.E. Truncated Mean value) of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and then averaging the rest to reduce bias.

The full spreadsheeet is here.

2022 Power Ranking Average

Place Team Wk 11 Wk 12/13 Wk Best Wk Worst Std. Dev 2021 Avg
Place Team Wk 11 Wk 12/13 Wk Best Wk Worst Std. Dev 2021 Avg
18 Atlanta United FC 16.17 16.7 11 23 3.19 14.9
4 Austin FC 9.25 4.7 2 7 1.44 11.7
22 Charlotte FC 22.67 22 19 28 2.7 23.8
26 Chicago Fire 24.33 25.2 22 28 2.04 16.8
17 Cincinnati (FC) 14.67 16.1 8 20 3.55 23.5
13 Colorado Rapids 12.75 13 11 17 1.64 11.8
20 Columbus Crew SC 15.08 19.1 9 23 4.01 11.4
25 D.C. United 21.75 24.9 21 28 2.17 19.8
5 Dallas (FC) 2.58 6.5 1 11 2.84 10.5
16 Houston Dynamo 19.42 16 11 20 2.75 20
23 Inter Miami CF 25.92 22.7 19 27 2.6 25.1
10 L.A. Galaxy 6.92 10.6 6 16 3.34 8.1
1 Los Angeles FC 2.67 1.7 1 4 0.94 2.7
12 Minnesota United FC 15.83 12.4 4 17 3.34 10.3
9 Montreal (CF) 5.83 8.7 5 19 3.6 16.9
8 Nashville SC 9.92 8 4 14 2.95 7.5
15 New England Revolution 16.58 15.2 5 20 4.54 13.4
2 New York City FC 5.25 2.5 1 8 1.99 9.3
6 New York RB 4.33 7.5 4 11 1.88 6.4
11 Orlando City SC 10.42 10.7 6 19 3.36 11.6
2 Philadelphia Union 2.92 2.5 1 4 1.09 3.3
19 Portland Timbers 13.33 18.4 9 22 3.48 13.2
7 Real Salt Lake 11.75 7.6 2 15 3.79 11.4
21 San Jose Earthquakes 22.17 21.1 16 26 3.23 24
14 Seattle Sounders FC 15.5 15.1 5 23 5.35 12.6
26 Sporting Kansas City 26.25 25.2 22 28 2.21 20.8
24 Toronto FC 23.92 24.4 16 28 3.67 19.6
28 Vancouver Whitecaps FC 26.5 26.8 25 28 0.97 24.8

Site Bias

All sites are going to have bias, whether conscious (blogs) or due to analytic calculation (based on past performance). This section lets you see the extent that sites are biased for/against teams. Negative totals (-) are bias FOR, positive numbers (+) are bias AGAINST.

2022 Power Ranking Bias

SITE BIAS AVG J-Sag 538 Who Scrd Mass Sonny ESPN SCS MLS Co+Cr Odds VSS Simmons USSP MLSNW WTR F-Boss Fr-Borg
SITE BIAS AVG J-Sag 538 Who Scrd Mass Sonny ESPN SCS MLS Co+Cr Odds VSS Simmons USSP MLSNW WTR F-Boss Fr-Borg
Atlanta United FC 14.9 1.6 -3.2 1.1 3.1 4.1 -1.1 -2.6 0.2 -1.2 -1.7 0.5 0 -2.2 -8.9 5.3 -0.5 1.5
Austin FC 11.7 2.7 1.4 -5.5 -4.2 4.5 -1.6 -7.5 -0.6 -10.1 5.1 1.7 1.5 0.6 1 -1.4 6 -5.2
Charlotte FC 23.8 2.6 0.7 -1 0.4 3.2 -0.4 -0.5 -1.2 -0.3 1.4 -2.1 0.7 1.9 0.8 -1.6 -4.4 -3.6
Chicago Fire 16.8 3.4 2 -7.7 -1.6 2.7 -0.1 -8 1.5 -2.4 5.2 -0.3 1 -1.8 -2.5 -6.8 3.9 2
Cincinnati (FC) 23.5 2.6 2.1 -2.1 -0.3 2.6 0.4 -2.3 -2.8 -0.9 1.6 -1.9 0.2 1.8 -1.9 1.5 4.2 -5.5
Colorado Rapids 11.8 -3.9 2.2 3 2 2 0 1.9 -0.8 4.1 -2.6 -2.3 -2.3 -2.8 0.6 -1.8 -1.2 1.7
Columbus Crew SC 11.4 -0.7 -3 -4.2 -2.9 -2.2 -0.1 -4.4 3.3 -2.9 5.2 1.9 0.4 -4.1 5.3 1.9 -2.7 8
D.C. United 19.8 1.3 0.3 -2.9 0 2.7 1.6 -8.6 2.5 -5.8 -0.7 0.4 -0.6 1.5 2.1 -1.8 -2.1 3.7
Dallas (FC) 10.5 0.2 0.4 0.6 -0.4 -2.8 -1.8 2.2 -0.3 -0.4 5.3 -1.7 1 2.5 0 -2.2 5.5 -3.5
Houston Dynamo 20 0.8 3.8 -0.5 0.5 -1.2 -3.7 -4.2 -0.8 -5.4 2.8 -1.5 0.7 -0.7 1.6 -2.5 5.1 -3.3
Inter Miami CF 25.1 1.3 1.7 0 0.6 0.7 -1.4 -0.9 -0.8 -0.4 0.6 -1.2 1.1 -0.4 -2.4 -0.4 -2.1 -2.4
L.A. Galaxy 8.1 2 -2.3 1.7 0.7 2.9 -2.9 -1.4 -0.4 0.5 -1.9 1.4 1.8 1.9 -3.3 -0.6 -0.3 -1.7
Los Angeles FC 2.7 1.1 -1.7 0 0.4 0.5 -1.6 1 0.5 0 -1.5 0.4 3 0.6 -0.8 -1 9.5 -1.2
Minnesota United FC 10.3 -1.8 -0.2 -6.1 -2.4 -4.7 1.2 2.7 3.7 1.2 5.2 -0.1 -0.2 2 7.7 -2.1 1 0.6
Montreal (CF) 16.9 -1.1 -1.1 6.5 0.1 2.2 0.4 4.1 -3.7 1 2.4 -0.9 -1.2 0.1 -5.8 4.1 1.5 -8.7
Nashville SC 7.5 -2.1 -0.3 5.3 -2.3 0.3 -2.7 3.8 -0.5 4.6 2 1.3 -5 3.8 2.7 0.7 -4.7 -0.9
New England Revolution 13.4 0 -1.9 -3.2 3.8 -3.2 1.2 4.1 -0.4 4.5 -8.7 2.8 1.2 -3.4 2.1 4.3 -8.3 9.4
New York City FC 9.3 3.3 -6.8 -0.1 2.9 2.6 1.9 5.5 -5 3.8 -5.7 3.9 0 -3 0.1 5.9 -6.5 2.3
New York RB 6.4 -3.9 -2.3 -1.7 -1.3 0.8 -0.3 -2.2 2 -2.2 2.6 4.7 -1.9 3.6 5.5 1.4 -1.1 1.2
Orlando City SC 11.6 2 0.1 5.1 -1.1 -1.4 1 -1.3 0.9 -2.4 1.8 0.9 -0.5 2.4 -4.1 -5.9 2.1 -1.7
Philadelphia Union 3.3 -1.1 0.5 0.5 0.3 -0.8 0.6 3.5 -0.4 2.2 0.2 0.7 -0.3 0.4 0.2 0 -0.9 0.6
Portland Timbers 13.2 -0.6 5.1 -4 1.4 -4.2 -1.9 5.1 2.4 2.2 -2.3 -1.2 1.9 3.8 0 -2 -5.9 3.9
Real Salt Lake 11.4 -1.1 4 1 -1.6 -0.7 -0.9 -4.2 3.7 -1.5 3.9 -3.4 -2.4 -0.7 0.9 -1.4 1.4 -0.7
San Jose Earthquakes 24 -1.5 0.5 -1.8 -1.5 -2 1.7 0.5 1.5 0.4 2.3 -1.8 -0.5 1.3 1.6 -0.5 1.9 -0.9
Seattle Sounders FC 12.6 -3.9 -1.5 11 2.5 -1.6 6 8.7 -8.9 8.5 -9 2.2 -0.5 -5.6 -4.4 3.9 -1.2 0.7
Sporting Kansas City 20.8 -4.7 -0.6 4 2.4 -2.8 3.5 1.7 2.1 3.2 -7.9 -0.7 -0.5 -3.5 1.2 0 -2.9 4
Toronto FC 19.6 4.2 2.1 -5.4 -3.1 -1.7 0.1 0.6 2.6 -1.9 -5.8 -1 2.9 -0.6 2.2 -1.3 6 -1.1
Vancouver Whitecaps FC 24.8 -1.8 -0.3 -0.6 2 -1.8 1.5 -0.1 0.4 2.1 0 -2.3 -0.6 1.2 -0.8 1.7 -2.5 1.6
Most Bias VS 4.2 5.1 11 3.8 4.5 6 8.7 3.7 8.5 5.3 4.7 3 3.8 7.7 5.9 9.5 9.4
Most Bias FOR -4.7 -6.8 -7.7 -4.2 -4.7 -3.7 -8.6 -8.9 -10.1 -9 -3.4 -5 -5.6 -5.8 -6.8 -8.3 -8.7
WEEK ACCURACY Exact 1 off 2 off 3 off 4 off 5 off 6 off 7+ off
Jeff Sagarin 9 8 2 5 3 1 0 0 Best
FiveThirtyEight 8 7 5 5 3 0 0 0 Very good
Who Scored 2 4 4 4 2 1 1 10 Worst
ESPN 3 7 8 5 3 2 0 0
Massey 6 12 6 3 0 1 0 0 good
Sonny Moore 3 7 7 7 3 0 1 0
Versus Sports Simulator 2 12 4 5 2 3 0 0 good
Simmons Ratings 4 13 5 2 2 1 1 0 good
MLS Network NA
MLS Soccer 1 11 8 3 1 2 1 1
Freeborg Power Index 1 9 8 6 2 0 1 1
Sports Club Stats NA
Coach & Crew 5 7 6 6 2 1 1 0
Betting Odds 4 7 8 1 1 4 1 2
US Soccer Players NA
MLS Fantasy Boss NA
Waking The Red NA
  • Most bias for: Coach and Crew - Austin FC 14.47 better than average.
  • Most bias against: MLS Fantasy Boss - Los Angeles FC 14.22 worse than average (may change slightly after they publish rankings).