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Power Ranking Averages - Week 20-21 (7/21/22)

Double week for MLS. Crew soar, Galaxy crash.

Power Rankings

Another double week for MLS, and 13 sites published for weeks 20-21. Waking the Red is on drop warning, if no update next week they’ll be dropped. One site retroactively published rankings back to week 17, so totals and some positions have been changed accordingly.

Sites Used

You may notice the inclusion of ‘analytic’ sites; they serve to function as a ‘control group’ to the rest which are based on personal opinions. There are also sites included that some will argue are ‘prediction rankings’ - but that also is a form of Power Ranking is (see the quote at the top) since it uses algorithms to calculate a team’s likely final position.

Bias for or against certain teams are sometimes an unfortunate feature of power rankings. It can be based on their analytic formula, or the raters preference. In some cases the bias can become extreme - If you feel a site got the ratings wrong for your team I invite you to contact them regarding it.

I will typically only remove sites for two reasons.

  1. Duplicating / copying ratings from another source on the list.
  2. Failure to update for 6 consecutive weeks. Previous ratings will not be removed, but new ones may or may not be added. I will still periodically check them to see if they have resumed.

All the averages use the Olympic method (I.E. Truncated Mean value) of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and then averaging the rest to reduce bias.

The full spreadsheeet is here.

2022 Power Ranking Average

Place Team Wk 22 Wk 23 Wk Best Wk Worst Std. Dev 2022 Avg
Place Team Wk 22 Wk 23 Wk Best Wk Worst Std. Dev 2022 Avg
21 Atlanta United FC 21.45 21.2 9 25 4.54 16.7
4 Austin FC 4.18 3.6 3 9 1.65 8.6
23 Charlotte FC 22 22 17 25 2.52 22.6
19 Chicago Fire 19.09 19.7 11 24 4.1 20.1
15 Cincinnati (FC) 16.18 15.4 12 18 1.97 20
18 Colorado Rapids 18.73 19.3 15 23 2.73 14.6
9 Columbus Crew SC 9.18 9 5 14 2.75 11.8
27 D.C. United 27.82 27.3 25 28 0.94 22.9
6 Dallas (FC) 8.73 7.2 5 15 2.74 9.2
26 Houston Dynamo 23.45 25.3 23 27 1.14 20.3
22 Inter Miami CF 22.18 21.5 17 24 2.39 23.4
13 L.A. Galaxy 9.73 12.5 10 16 1.83 8.6
1 Los Angeles FC 1.36 1.4 1 3 0.8 2.2
7 Minnesota United FC 7.82 7.5 4 11 1.78 11.5
8 Montreal (CF) 8.55 8 5 21 4.34 13.2
12 Nashville SC 10.73 11.8 6 15 2.31 8.3
16 New England Revolution 16.64 16.2 8 21 3.48 13.6
3 New York City FC 2.55 3.3 2 4 0.75 6.5
5 New York RB 5.09 5.3 5 7 0.67 6.3
17 Orlando City SC 16.27 16.8 13 22 2.5 12.8
2 Philadelphia Union 2.09 1.7 1 2 0.49 3
10 Portland Timbers 11.64 10.4 5 16 2.91 14.4
11 Real Salt Lake 11.73 11.1 9 17 2.39 10.2
24 San Jose Earthquakes 22 22.2 17 26 3.09 23.5
14 Seattle Sounders FC 13.36 14.6 10 20 3.17 12.5
28 Sporting Kansas City 26.91 27.6 27 28 0.51 23.5
25 Toronto FC 24 23.6 10 26 4.87 21.6
20 Vancouver Whitecaps FC 22 20.4 14 25 2.9 23.2

Site Bias

All sites are going to have bias, whether conscious (blogs) or due to analytic calculation (based on past performance). This section lets you see the extent that sites are biased for/against teams. Negative totals (-) are bias FOR, positive numbers (+) are bias AGAINST.

This bias list is based on Season Average and not weekly ranking.

2022 Power Ranking Bias

SITE BIAS AVG Sag 538 Wh Sc Mass Son ESPN SCS MLS C+C Odds VSS Sim USSP M-NW Fbrg B-way AVG
SITE BIAS AVG Sag 538 Wh Sc Mass Son ESPN SCS MLS C+C Odds VSS Sim USSP M-NW Fbrg B-way AVG
Atlanta United FC 16.7 1 -2.6 -3.6 2.9 4.3 -0.3 -2.5 0.4 -1.5 -1.9 2.8 0.1 -0.7 -6.6 2.3 -2.5 16.7
Austin FC 8.6 1.6 1.1 0.4 -2.5 2.5 -0.9 -4.3 0.1 -6.5 3.2 1 1.4 1.6 -0.5 -3.7 -3.7 8.6
Charlotte FC 22.6 1.5 0.5 1 -0.1 3.6 -1.1 -1.4 -1.4 -0.3 1.4 -1.4 0.4 1.4 -0.1 -2.7 -0.9 22.6
Chicago Fire 20.1 1.8 0.5 -7.2 -0.3 1 0 -2.4 0.4 -0.7 4.2 0.5 -0.1 -0.3 -0.9 0.6 0.5 20.1
Cincinnati (FC) 20 2.6 2.1 -1.1 0.1 2.5 -0.4 -2.8 -2.2 -0.9 2.3 -1 0.5 1.4 -2.5 -3.6 -7 20
Colorado Rapids 14.6 -2.9 0.9 1.7 1 0.4 -0.7 2 -0.3 3.1 -0.9 0 -2.7 -2.2 0.6 2.7 -2.2 14.6
Columbus Crew SC 11.8 -0.8 -1.9 -4.5 -2.1 -0.7 2 -0.8 3.6 -1.2 3.8 0.5 0.5 -1.8 3.6 3.8 -0.1 11.8
D.C. United 22.9 1.2 0.2 -1.6 0.4 1.5 1 -5.1 1.2 -3.8 -0.8 0 -0.6 -0.1 0.9 2.7 -0.8 22.9
Dallas (FC) 9.2 -0.3 0.8 2.2 -0.4 -2.9 -1.1 -0.1 0.4 -1.2 4.4 -1.2 0.1 0.8 0.1 0.7 -3.7 9.2
Houston Dynamo 20.3 0.7 3.7 -0.5 0.7 -1.1 -2.4 -4.1 -0.6 -4.2 1.2 -0.8 0.6 -2.3 2.6 -0.9 -2.9 20.3
Inter Miami CF 23.4 2.3 1.2 -0.4 0.4 0.2 -2.2 -0.6 -0.9 0.4 1 -2.3 2.3 -1 -1.3 -2.5 1.1 23.4
L.A. Galaxy 8.6 0.9 -1.8 2.1 -0.2 1.2 -0.8 -0.3 0.4 0.9 -1.6 0.1 1.3 1 -2 0.5 -0.2 8.6
Los Angeles FC 2.2 0.5 -1.1 0.6 0.2 0 -1.2 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -1.1 0.7 2.1 0.2 -0.6 -0.2 -0.5 2.2
Minnesota United FC 11.5 -2.1 -0.2 -7.2 -2.4 -3.4 0.9 3.3 2.5 1.8 3.7 0.3 -1.1 2.7 5.9 -0.1 4 11.5
Montreal (CF) 13.2 0.6 -1.1 8.7 0.4 1.1 0.5 0.6 -2.2 0.3 1.6 -0.8 -0.1 0 -4.2 -5.1 -4.8 13.2
Nashville SC 8.3 -1.3 -0.9 4.3 -2.2 0.3 -2.1 2 0.3 2.5 0.9 1.4 -3.8 3.7 2.8 -1.4 0.1 8.3
New England Revolution 13.6 0.3 -1.5 -5.4 2.5 -0.1 1.8 1.8 0.2 2.2 -6.5 1.4 1.6 -1.2 1.4 5.3 1.3 13.6
New York City FC 6.5 2.1 -4.2 -0.7 1.8 3 1.3 1.8 -2.6 2.2 -3.5 2.2 1 -0.7 0 1.9 -5 6.5
New York RB 6.3 -2.2 -1.5 -1.4 -0.1 0.9 -0.7 -1.5 0.8 -1.7 1.1 4.1 -1 1.5 3 0.6 -2.6 6.3
Orlando City SC 12.8 2.1 0.1 6.8 -0.5 -0.8 -0.7 -1.8 0.2 -1.9 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 0.4 -3.1 -0.5 6.2 12.8
Philadelphia Union 3 -0.9 0.5 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 1.2 1.7 0 2 0.2 -0.3 -0.4 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.8 3
Portland Timbers 14.4 -1.7 3.6 -6.1 0.6 -3 -0.6 6.1 1.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.8 3.8 0.9 1.3 2.2 14.4
Real Salt Lake 10.2 0 1.8 1.7 -0.9 -2.1 -1.6 -2.5 2.1 -0.5 4.1 -3.1 -1.5 -2.2 0 -1.1 4.2 10.2
San Jose Earthquakes 23.5 -1.7 0.5 -3.2 -0.9 -2.8 2.1 1.6 1.8 0.9 2.5 -1.5 -0.6 1.7 1.4 -1.8 0.8 23.5
Seattle Sounders FC 12.5 -3.7 -1 6 1.4 0.7 4.3 4.6 -7.4 5.9 -7.7 2.5 -0.4 -4.7 -2.1 0.6 4.9 12.5
Sporting Kansas City 23.5 -3 -0.3 2.6 1.2 -1.6 1.6 1.8 0.9 2.2 -4.8 -0.3 -0.9 -1.9 0.4 1.9 3.9 23.5
Toronto FC 21.6 2.9 2.2 -5.9 -1.5 -0.6 -0.3 -0.6 1.6 -1.5 -6.3 -0.6 1.7 -0.6 1.9 0.6 5.5 21.6
Vancouver Whitecaps FC 23.2 -0.6 -0.2 1.5 1.2 -3 1.1 1.1 0.2 2.7 0.5 -2.8 0.4 0.2 -0.8 -1.7 2.3 23.2
Most Bias VS 2.9 3.7 8.7 2.5 3.6 4.3 6.1 3.6 5.9 4.4 4.1 2.3 3.8 5.9 5.3 6.2 VS
Most Bias FOR -3.7 -4.2 -7.2 -2.5 -3.4 -2.4 -5.1 -7.4 -6.5 -7.7 -3.1 -3.8 -4.7 -4.2 -5.1 -7 FOR
WEEK ACCURACY Exact 1 off 2 off 3 off 4 off 5 off 6 off 7+ off
Jeff Sagarin 11 7 7 0 2 1 0 0
FiveThirtyEight 12 9 5 1 1 0 0 0
Who Scored 4 3 5 5 0 4 1 6
ESPN 10 5 3 3 3 4 0 0
Massey 9 13 3 2 0 1 0 0
Sonny Moore 5 13 1 4 1 2 1 1
Versus Sports Simulator 8 9 4 2 3 1 1 0
Simmons Ratings 16 8 2 0 2 0 0 0
MLS Network 3 15 3 4 2 1 0 0
MLS Soccer 6 12 7 2 1 0 0 0
Freeborg Power Index 2 16 3 1 3 1 2 0
Sports Club Stats N/A
Coach & Crew N/A
Betting Odds 8 8 1 4 1 2 3 1
US Soccer Players N/A
Broadway Sports N/A