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Power Ranking Averages - Week 28-29 (9/8/22)

Another double week by MLS reckoning, PHI bumps LAFC out of 1st.

Power Rankings

8 sites published for wk 28 (midweek), and all 14 sites for wk 29. Ratings DO NOT include the mid-week game (Sept. 7th).

Sites Used

You may notice the inclusion of ‘analytic’ sites; they serve to function as a ‘control group’ to the rest which are based on personal opinions. There are also sites included that some will argue are ‘prediction rankings’ - but that also is a form of Power Ranking is (see the quote at the top) since it uses algorithms to calculate a team’s likely final position.

Bias for or against certain teams are sometimes an unfortunate feature of power rankings. It can be based on their analytic formula, or the raters preference. In some cases the bias can become extreme - If you feel a site got the ratings wrong for your team I invite you to contact them regarding it.

I will typically only remove sites for two reasons.

  1. Duplicating / copying ratings from another source on the list.
  2. Failure to update for 6 consecutive weeks. Previous ratings will not be removed, but new ones may or may not be added. I will still periodically check them to see if they have resumed.

All the averages use the Olympic method (I.E. Truncated Mean value) of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and then averaging the rest to reduce bias.

The full spreadsheeet is here.

2022 Power Ranking Average

Place Team Wk 32 Wk 33 Wk Best Wk Worst Std. Dev 2022 Avg
Place Team Wk 32 Wk 33 Wk Best Wk Worst Std. Dev 2022 Avg
23 Atlanta United FC 16.6 20.67 8 26 4.82 17.5
4 Austin FC 5.1 5.22 4 17 3.71 7.3
19 Charlotte FC 22.3 20 15 26 3.33 22.8
24 Chicago Fire 23.7 23.56 14 27 3.32 20.6
11 Cincinnati (FC) 8.7 11.11 7 15 2.55 17.7
22 Colorado Rapids 20.4 20.44 15 23 2.23 15.9
9 Columbus Crew SC 12.2 8.89 4 13 3.28 11.2
28 D.C. United 28 28 28 28 0 24.4
5 Dallas (FC) 6.2 5.89 4 17 3.66 8.6
25 Houston Dynamo 24.9 24.56 22 27 1.29 21.9
13 Inter Miami CF 16.3 14 9 21 4.09 21.5
10 L.A. Galaxy 11.3 10.33 6 14 2.41 9.9
2 Los Angeles FC 2 1.56 1 2 0.52 2
16 Minnesota United FC 13.2 15.22 10 21 2.9 10.9
3 Montreal (CF) 3.4 3 2 13 3.06 10.5
8 Nashville SC 6.4 8.11 4 12 2.43 8.7
19 New England Revolution 20.9 20 6 23 4.65 14.5
6 New York City FC 7.7 6.33 3 19 4.53 6.7
7 New York RB 6.9 7.11 5 11 1.79 6.4
14 Orlando City SC 13.8 14.11 8 21 4.45 13.4
1 Philadelphia Union 1 1.44 1 3 0.69 2.5
12 Portland Timbers 9.6 11.67 6 14 2.73 13.8
15 Real Salt Lake 15.3 14.44 12 17 1.81 10.7
26 San Jose Earthquakes 25.7 25 20 27 2.45 23.8
18 Seattle Sounders FC 17 19.44 11 26 4.58 13.8
21 Sporting Kansas City 20.7 20.22 15 26 4.03 23.6
27 Toronto FC 24.7 25.67 19 27 3.06 21.6
17 Vancouver Whitecaps FC 20.7 18.56 13 26 4.27 22.7
  • Highest Standard Deviation: New York City FC 5.38
  • Lowest Standard Deviation: Philadelphia Union 0.43
  • Biggest Rise: FC Dallas, Nashville SC up 4.
  • Biggest Fall: 6 teams down 2.
  • New Lows: DCU (28th x10), HOU (27th x4).
  • New Highs: MTL (3rd), PHI (1st x7).

Site Bias

All sites are going to have bias, whether conscious (blogs) or due to analytic calculation (based on past performance). This section lets you see the extent that sites are biased for/against teams. Negative totals (-) are bias FOR, positive numbers (+) are bias AGAINST.

This bias list is based on Season Average and not weekly ranking.

2022 Power Ranking Bias

SITE BIAS AVG Sag 538 Wh Sc Mass Son ESPN MLS Odds VSS Sim USSP M-NW Fbrg B-way AVG
SITE BIAS AVG Sag 538 Wh Sc Mass Son ESPN MLS Odds VSS Sim USSP M-NW Fbrg B-way AVG
Atlanta United FC 17.5 0.3 -1.7 -5.7 2.3 3.4 0.7 0.6 -1.1 2.4 0.1 2.1 -5.9 1.2 -3 17.5
Austin FC 7.3 1.2 0.5 2.9 -1.7 1.7 -0.7 0 2.1 0.8 0.7 1.1 -0.4 -2.6 -2.3 7.3
Charlotte FC 22.8 1.7 0.2 1.1 -0.5 3.5 -1.6 -1.4 0.6 -1 0.3 -0.4 0.6 -1.5 -1 22.8
Chicago Fire 20.6 1.5 0.4 -7.1 -0.5 0.7 0.9 0.4 3.5 0.6 0.1 0.1 -0.5 0 -0.7 20.6
Cincinnati (FC) 17.7 2.3 2.1 -0.9 0.8 2.1 -0.4 -1.5 2.3 -1.9 0.2 1.2 -2.2 -2.9 -5.4 17.7
Colorado Rapids 15.9 -2.4 0.4 1.9 0.8 -0.5 -0.5 0.1 0 -0.7 -2.3 0.2 0.9 1.4 -3.4 15.9
Columbus Crew SC 11.2 -0.7 -0.6 -4.6 -1.1 -0.3 1.9 3.1 2.9 -0.8 0.3 -1.8 2.4 3.2 0.4 11.2
D.C. United 24.4 0.9 0.2 -1.1 0.3 1.1 0.6 0.7 -0.5 0 -0.5 0.2 0.1 1.9 0.2 24.4
Dallas (FC) 8.6 -0.6 0.7 4.2 -0.2 -2.9 -1.3 0.2 3.7 -1.1 -0.4 -0.2 0.4 0.7 -2 8.6
Houston Dynamo 21.9 0.4 2.9 -0.9 0.5 -1.1 -1.4 -0.4 1.1 -0.2 0.2 -2.2 2 -0.6 -1.8 21.9
Inter Miami CF 21.5 2.6 0.4 1 -0.3 0.3 -1.9 -0.9 -0.3 -2 2 -0.9 -0.5 -2.7 1.2 21.5
L.A. Galaxy 9.9 0.3 -1.7 2.1 -0.1 0.5 0.6 0 -2.3 0.5 1 1.2 -1.8 1.2 -1.1 9.9
Los Angeles FC 2 0.4 -0.8 0.6 0.2 0 -0.8 0.1 -0.9 0.5 1.5 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.4 2
Minnesota United FC 10.9 -1.1 -0.4 -6 -2 -2.4 0.2 1.7 3.1 1 -0.7 2.9 4.6 -0.1 3.3 10.9
Montreal (CF) 10.5 0.9 -0.9 10.1 0.2 0.7 0.2 -1.6 1 -0.6 0.2 -0.9 -2.6 -3.8 -3.6 10.5
Nashville SC 8.7 -1.6 -0.3 2.3 -1.7 0.3 -1.6 0.2 1.1 1.9 -2.5 2.4 3 -0.5 -1 8.7
New England Revolution 14.5 -0.1 -0.9 -7.3 1.2 0.9 1.9 0.4 -4.6 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.4 3.5 1.9 14.5
New York City FC 6.7 1.2 -3.6 -1.9 0.5 3 3.1 -1.8 -3.1 2.1 0.1 -0.2 1.2 1.9 -4.6 6.7
New York RB 6.4 -1.4 -1.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.8 -0.4 0.7 0.4 3.3 -0.6 0.2 2.3 0.5 -1.9 6.4
Orlando City SC 13.4 2.5 -0.6 7 0.4 -0.1 -1.3 -0.4 -2.1 -0.9 0.1 -1.2 -2.6 -0.6 6.3 13.4
Philadelphia Union 2.5 -0.6 0.5 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 1 0 0.3 -0.2 -0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 2.5
Portland Timbers 13.8 -1.4 3.2 -6 0.5 -2.7 0.1 1.3 1.2 -0.1 0.6 1.8 1.3 0.9 1.8 13.8
Real Salt Lake 10.7 0.4 1.1 1.5 -0.3 -2 -2 1.7 4.4 -2.1 -1.2 -1.6 -1 -0.2 4.1 10.7
San Jose Earthquakes 23.8 -1.5 0.7 -3.9 -0.2 -3 1.7 1.7 2 -0.7 -0.8 0.9 0.6 -1.5 1.3 23.8
Seattle Sounders FC 13.8 -4 -0.9 2.7 0.2 1.9 3.5 -5.1 -5.5 3.1 -0.4 -3.2 -1.4 0.9 2.6 13.8
Sporting Kansas City 23.6 -2.8 0.1 2.4 1.3 -1.5 0.4 0.6 -2.7 -0.5 0 -1 -0.2 0.8 3.3 23.6
Toronto FC 21.6 2.7 2.2 -6.1 -0.4 0.5 -2.2 0.8 -6 -0.4 1.9 1.3 0.7 0.8 3.9 21.6
Vancouver Whitecaps FC 22.7 0.2 -0.6 2.4 1.1 -3.6 0.4 -0.1 0.1 -2.6 0.8 -1.7 -0.1 -1.2 2.6 22.7
Most Bias VS 2.7 3.2 10.1 1.3 3.5 3.5 3.1 4.4 3.3 2 2.9 4.6 3.5 6.3 VS
Most Bias FOR -4 -3.6 -7.3 -2 -3.6 -2.2 -5.1 -6 -2.6 -2.5 -3.2 -2.6 -3.8 -5.4 FOR
WEEK ACCURACY Exact 1 off 2 off 3 off 4 off 5 off 6 off 7+ off
Jeff Sagarin 9 10 1 0 2 3 1 2
FiveThirtyEight 8 10 4 3 3 0 0 0
Who Scored 3 3 0 4 2 1 3 12
ESPN 10 6 2 3 4 0 1 2
Massey 7 7 7 1 4 1 1 0
Sonny Moore 7 5 2 4 6 2 1 1
Versus Sports Simulator 10 7 2 3 2 2 1 1
Simmons Ratings 13 5 7 1 1 0 0 1
MLS Network N/A
MLS Soccer 7 9 7 2 3 0 0 0
Freeborg Power Index N/A
Betting Odds 6 11 7 0 3 1 0 0
US Soccer Players 5 6 9 7 0 0 1 0
Broadway Sports N/A
  • Most accurate site of the week: MLS Soccer with 12 exactly on average, though 538 must be commended for getting 21 teams within 1.
  • Least accurate site of the week: Who Scored with 6 off by 7+.